Uncertainty in Israeli Election; Bolsonaro Flees Brazil

Early results from Israel’s first election since the Hamas attacks showed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc moving ahead of opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot’s bloc, although the outcome was still too close to call. With more than half—and later roughly 70%—of ballots counted, Netanyahu’s bloc was projected at about 54 to 55 seats, Eisenkot’s at 47 to 49, and Israel’s two Arab parties at roughly 16 to 19 seats. A majority requires 61 seats in the 120-member Knesset. Bloomberg’s Ethan Bronner said neither side had an easy route to forming a government. Netanyahu has said he will not govern with Arab parties, meaning he would need to attract six or seven lawmakers from the opposition or create a different right-wing or center coalition. Eisenkot’s side faces a comparable problem because it has also ruled out relying on the Arab parties. The remaining ballots include about 600,000 votes from army bases, hospitals, and diplomatic missions, which must be counted over the following two days and have historically leaned right, though this year’s reservists could behave differently. President Isaac Herzog is expected to give one leader the first opportunity to form a government the following week; another election in a few months remains possible.

The Wall Street Journal reported that the United States had warned several Gulf countries to prepare for a short, intense military campaign after the U.S. midterm elections. Bloomberg correspondent Stewart Livingston Wallace said President Trump had repeatedly described restarting hostilities as one of the available options, while the United States had moved substantial military hardware into the third-strike area group and was bringing in additional troops and air-defense batteries. Wallace said activity by the regional axis was pointing in the same direction, citing visits to Tehran and the involvement of other regional actors. Bloomberg’s Stewart Livingston Mollis said a return to airstrikes would likely represent a shift away from the White House’s economic-pressure campaign. Later, Bronner noted that Netanyahu and President Trump had both vowed to return to war with Iran if necessary. He cautioned that the statements could be intended to pressure negotiations, but said it was unclear whether they were merely rhetoric. The election uncertainty therefore coincides with a continuing risk that Israel and the United States could escalate their military posture.

President Trump held rallies in Corpus Christi and Lubbock, Texas, to support Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton six days before the midterm elections. In Lubbock, Trump announced a plan he said would save consumers and energy producers $45 billion in costs while unlocking large quantities of Texas natural gas. He also defended his decision to attack Iran, calling it one of the greatest things he had ever done, and described higher gasoline prices as short-term pain for long-term gain. Democratic candidate James Talarico held a rally in Lubbock only three miles from Trump’s event. Talarico told supporters they would “shock the nation” by defeating billionaires and taking back Texas. The RealClearPolitics polling average had Talarico ahead by 1.8 percentage points, although Texas has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1988. After the rallies, Trump said he expected a meeting to be arranged soon between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to seek an end to their nearly five-year war. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and special envoy Steve Witkoff had discussed both the Russia conflict and the Iran war with him.

A federal judge in Los Angeles questioned the Trump administration’s effort to prevent California from counting about 20,000 mail-in ballots that the Justice Department claims were sent by noncitizens. U.S. District Judge David Carter held a hearing lasting more than three hours on the department’s lawsuit against California, which had refused to verify the citizenship status of people on the government’s list of suspected noncitizens. Carter said he would rule on the government’s request and warned against threats to prosecute election workers who count the disputed ballots. At the same time, Black voters in the South were casting early ballots at a faster pace than in previous midterm elections. In North Carolina, where voter-registration records track race, ballots cast by Black voters were up 63% from the same point in 2022; in Georgia, they were up 15%. Voting-rights advocates attributed the increase partly to backlash against Republican efforts to gerrymander Black voters into new districts. Bloomberg said that, if the trend continues, Black voters could create a Democratic turnout advantage across the South. The program also promoted Bloomberg’s live midterm coverage, “America Decides,” beginning at 6 p.m. Wall Street time on November 3.

The program reported that conservative Brazilian senator Flávio Bolsonaro was in Miami after losing Brazil’s presidential election to President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Brazilian federal police had ordered Bolsonaro to surrender his passports, but he did not do so, prompting concern that he posed a flight risk. Bloomberg’s São Paulo bureau chief Felipe Pacheco said Bolsonaro faced multiple criminal investigations in Brazil. Pacheco also reported that the United States was willing to grant visas to Flávio Bolsonaro and his family, although the type and details of the visas were not known. Brazilian media reported that Eduardo Bolsonaro, Flávio’s brother who lives in the United States, may have arranged the move. President Trump, an ally of Bolsonaro’s family, said he would have approved Flávio coming to the United States and repeated claims that Brazil’s election had been fraudulent. The segment presented the visa reports and the failure to surrender passports as the latest developments in the dispute, while noting that Bolsonaro’s legal status and the exact U.S. immigration arrangement remained unclear.

S&P 500 futures were little changed ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision. Despite rising inflation, stronger growth, and low unemployment, markets priced only a very small chance of a rate increase. Bloomberg’s Michael McKee said two senior members of the Federal Open Market Committee had suggested that a pause was likely, and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh had not tried to reverse that expectation. The difficult question for Warsh was why the central bank would hold off now and, if it did, when it would raise rates. Policymakers had indicated in September that they might increase rates at least once more this year, leaving December as another opportunity. After the Fed decision, investors were due to assess whether the artificial-intelligence boom was translating into results at Microsoft and Google parent Alphabet. South Korean memory-chip maker SK Hynix gave the AI trade a boost by announcing plans to return about $45 billion more to shareholders after profits rose sevenfold more than expected. The company said memory-component shortages could persist through at least 2030 and planned heavy capacity investment. A Bloomberg Intelligence report also concluded that China could lead the world in large language models by 2030 and become competitive in AI hardware such as chips and optical-networking components within four years, though Chinese AI firms were still struggling to turn innovation into profits.

Bloomberg’s New York roundup reported that former NYPD detective Victor Romero faced an upgraded second-degree murder charge in the alleged road-rage shooting death of utility worker Korn Irvine on the George Washington Bridge. A grand jury returned the charge after Romero had initially been arraigned on manslaughter. Irvine’s relatives and coworkers protested outside court, while his sister criticized Governor Kathy Hochul and questioned why Romero remained free on bail. The family’s attorney said they hoped his bail conditions would be changed and that he would be remanded. Three brothers known as the Alexander brothers—Tal, Oren, and Alon—were sentenced to 30 years in prison after being convicted of exploiting their wealth and luxury-real-estate connections to drug and rape dozens of women. The brothers maintained their innocence and described their conduct as youthful partying and womanizing. Separately, authorities searched for 28-year-old Tennessee inmate Jacob Morley, who allegedly escaped after killing a coworker. A stolen truck linked to him was found in Marion, Illinois, and police warned residents not to approach him. In sports, Milwaukee lost Game 4 of the World Series to Tampa Bay, 4–3, after the Rays scored twice in the bottom of the 12th inning following Cooper Pratt’s home run. The Brewers still led the series 3–1. The Indianapolis Colts also traded eight-time Pro Bowl guard Quenton Nelson to Seattle and three-time Pro Bowl defensive lineman DeForest Buckner to San Francisco.

In the longer Daybreak interview, Ethan Bronner explained that Israel’s initial exit polls had shown Eisenkot with a clear lead and prompted him to say Netanyahu was “going home.” As counting progressed, however, Netanyahu’s bloc moved substantially ahead. With about two-thirds counted, Bronner put Netanyahu at 54 seats, Eisenkot at 47, and the Arab parties at 19, while stressing that the figures could still change. Bronner said the remaining votes would determine who moved from roughly 54 toward 58—or fell toward 50—and which leader President Herzog would ask to form a government. He also said the result appeared to be a failure by most pollsters, with the notable exception of Channel 14, a generally right-wing outlet whose polling had been dismissed by critics as politicized. Netanyahu looked closer to power than his rival but still lacked a governing majority. Bronner said the central unresolved question was whether Netanyahu could pull lawmakers from the opposition, whether the opposing groups could build a coalition while excluding the far right or ultra-Orthodox parties, or whether Eisenkot’s camp would reverse its refusal to work with Arab parties. Because each possible coalition violated promises made during the campaign, Bronner described the situation as “a pretty big mess” and said another election was possible.