Midterm Elections a Referendum on Trump; US-Iran Pursue Diplomacy

Nathan Hager and Karen Moscow said voters were deciding control of Congress after months of campaigning and hundreds of millions of dollars in spending. The Cook Political Report projected Democrats would gain 12 to 25 House seats, while Democrats needed only three seats for control. About 57 million people had voted early; in states reporting party registration, 43% of ballots came from Democrats and 32% from Republicans. Yale’s Gotham Akunda cautioned that early voting was not enough to predict the result, although Florida had moved from an apparent Republican lock toward a potentially competitive race.

The Supreme Court rejected the Trump administration’s attempt to force thousands of California mail ballots aside after the Justice Department said it had identified 20,000 likely noncitizens on voter rolls. California called the list inaccurate and accused President Trump of undermining confidence in elections. Separately, a federal judge rejected Democratic groups’ effort to stop the administration from pressuring states over ballots allegedly cast by noncitizens, ruling that the groups had not shown any state had segregated ballots at the government’s request. Legal challenges and Trump’s continued denial of the 2020 result could delay final outcomes.

Chatham House’s Lindsey Newman said historical midterms generally punish the incumbent party: since 2000, George W. Bush in 2002 was the only president whose party retained both chambers. Polling and betting markets pointed to a Democratic House and made a Senate takeover plausible, though the Senate would likely be close. Newman argued that even a Democratic sweep would not immediately transform policy because Trump would run his agenda from the White House and veto Democratic legislation; Democrats would need a supermajority to override him.

A diplomat said Iran and the United States were reviewing mediators’ latest proposals to bridge their differences and avoid another full-scale war. Qatari mediators traveled to Tehran, and Iran’s parliament speaker said Iran had delivered a “strong and rational response” to Washington. The Wall Street Journal reported that the United States struck Iran’s Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz. Trump nevertheless said oil prices were plunging and linked the conflict to preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon; the description said oil fell about 10% on signs the White House would allow more time for diplomacy.

President Volodymyr Zelensky said Russia launched an overnight assault aimed mainly at power-generation facilities and substations in central, northern, and western Ukraine. He reported 289 attack drones, 17 ballistic missiles, and 59 cruise missiles, with 29 people killed in central Zaporizhia alone. The broadcast presented the attack as a major escalation against energy infrastructure rather than a limited strike on military targets.

The Nasdaq 100 had fallen 10% from its peak and entered a technical correction after another technology-led sell-off, although it remained up 11% for the year. J.P. Morgan Asset Management strategist Jordan Jackson called the move a “crisis of confidence” after three and a half to four years of strong performance, but said consolidation was healthy and the market could be a buying opportunity once midterm uncertainty passed. Investors were also reassessing whether the AI trade had become excessively euphoric.

Apple shares fell about 4.5% premarket despite a holiday-season forecast above Wall Street estimates, giving new CEO John Ternus a mixed first report card. Bloomberg’s Ed Ludlow said demand for the new iPhone duo was exceeding Apple’s ability to supply it, with memory pricing and availability creating constraints. Apple acknowledged sharply higher component costs; the description added that it forecast 7% to 10% holiday revenue growth but thinner gross margins, while fiscal fourth-quarter revenue rose 12% to $114.5 billion, slower than the prior quarter’s 16% growth.

Palantir raised its annual revenue forecast but issued a quarterly outlook suggesting sales growth could slow, sending shares down more than 6%. The AI data-and-analytics company, whose major customers include the U.S. military, had gained almost 900% over three years. PIMCO CEO Manny Roman warned that the AI boom could produce losers rather than a win-win outcome, while Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon remained bullish over potential financing business from hyperscalers, saying he expected bumps but was excited about the five- to ten-year outlook.

Bloomberg reported that Disney was moving toward eliminating thousands of positions and asking some managers to target 20% annual cost savings. The reductions could affect theme parks, television channels, and the movie studio. Disney has already cut billions of dollars in expenses and removed thousands of jobs in recent years, so the new plan would extend an ongoing cost-reduction campaign rather than represent a first restructuring.

Bloomberg Businessweek’s Lauren Grush reported that SpaceX’s culture is defined by Elon Musk, who may review candidates’ resumes, and that applicants are expected to understand the company’s mission and demonstrate loyalty to Musk. Recruiters reportedly value achievements, hands-on experience, and “raw, innate intelligence” more than advanced degrees. Job postings warn that employees must work extended hours and weekends as needed. The main compensation perk is equity through share-purchase rights or restricted stock units that vest over time; SpaceX did not respond to a request for comment.