Bloomberg Daybreak: US Edition

Daybreak Weekend: Nvidia Earnings, UK Labour Market, APEC Summit

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Key takeaways

  • NVIDIA’s near-term orders are largely secured, but its successor must replace Jensen Huang’s unusually broad role across products, supply chains, partnerships, and strategy.
  • Investors will use NVIDIA’s earnings to judge both the durability of AI-chip demand and how dependent the company’s future is on Huang personally.
  • Disney’s extra quarter week may add about $600 million in operating income, but investors want evidence of organic improvement in streaming, parks, or films.
  • Walmart is expected to demonstrate that low prices can continue attracting shoppers while Marketplace and Connect diversify its profit mix.
  • UK economic growth has exceeded expectations, partly because of AI investment, but hiring remains weak and young workers are bearing much of the labour-market strain.
  • APEC’s most meaningful outcomes are likely to come from bilateral meetings, especially discussions involving Xi Jinping, Donald Trump, tariffs, export controls, energy, and Taiwan.

Summary

NVIDIA faces a post-Jensen succession test

Bloomberg Intelligence tech researcher Mandeep Singh says NVIDIA’s stock is trading at an almost single-digit price-to-earnings multiple, meaning much of the bad news is already reflected. Interim CEO Colette Kress can handle the next couple of quarters because customer orders are largely locked in, but the crucial period begins beyond the first half of 2027. Singh says the successor must match Jensen Huang’s breadth: product strategy, deal-making, supply-chain ties with TSMC, and management of the NeoCloud ecosystem. Without strong execution, NVIDIA could lose share to Broadcom and AMD. He names Google, AMD, ARM, and internal NVIDIA executives as possible sources of a replacement.

NVIDIA earnings arrive amid doubts about Huang’s importance

Bloomberg’s Vina Ali Khan says NVIDIA’s stock is nearly 30% below its October peak, while Bernstein and Oppenheimer have cut their ratings and Morgan Stanley removed it as a top pick. Wall Street expects about $109 billion in revenue and $2.47 per share in earnings. Investors will test whether demand for AI chips remains strong after CoreWeave, a major NVIDIA customer, reported 168% year-over-year revenue growth and raised its full-year outlook. The central new question is whether NVIDIA’s AI infrastructure leadership depends too heavily on Huang personally.

Disney must show more than cost-cutting

Disney reports before Tuesday’s open, with Wall Street expecting roughly $25 billion in revenue and a sharp year-over-year earnings increase. The stock has risen recently, partly after reports that Disney is moving toward thousands of job cuts and asking some managers to identify as much as 20% in annual savings. Khan says investors want a growth story, not just reductions: potentially stronger streaming, parks, or movie releases. Disney also had an extra week in the quarter, which it estimates could add about $600 million in operating income, but investors are expected to look past that accounting boost for evidence that the underlying businesses are improving.

Walmart’s test is profitable diversification

Walmart enters Thursday’s earnings report after a major share-price run. Bank of America raised its price target to $139, arguing that Walmart continues taking market share from competitors, but the strong performance raises expectations. Khan says investors will watch Walmart Marketplace and its advertising platform, Connect, as well as same-store sales and the resilience of U.S. consumers. Analysts view those newer businesses as central to changing Walmart’s profit mix and supporting next year’s earnings-per-share growth. The retailer therefore needs to show it can keep winning shoppers with low prices while building higher-margin revenue streams.

UK growth is stronger, but AI is unsettling hiring

Bloomberg’s Tom Rees says UK GDP grew 0.7% in the third quarter, the strongest quarterly growth in two and a half years, while September alone rose 0.2%. Growth was broad, with consumer spending holding up despite inflation, but AI adoption helped computer programming and electronics manufacturing. The Bank of England expects about 1.6% growth for the year, better than anticipated several months earlier. At the same time, Morgan Stanley employer surveys found British companies reported an 8% net reduction in staff specifically due to AI in 2025, and vacancies have nearly halved from their 2022 peak.

The UK labour market is stabilising without much hiring

Bloomberg economist Matthew Bunney says unemployment was 4.7% in August and could surprise lower in September, while private-sector wage growth was 3% in the three months to August, far below the more than 8% reached during the post-Ukraine energy shock. However, annualised three-month wage momentum appears to be picking up. Rees describes a “low hire, low fire” market: payrolls are stabilising, but vacancies are at their lowest since 2021 and youth unemployment is at its highest in more than a decade. AI is also reducing some graduate entry-level work in legal and financial services, even as it boosts output.

China’s EV makers are bringing back physical controls

The Bloomberg Tech Minute reports that Chinese automakers, once known for turning vehicles into “rolling smartphones” filled with screens, are returning to buttons and knobs. China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has proposed vehicle standards requiring certain functions, including headlights and gear changes, to use physical controls rather than digital interfaces. Regulators are responding to safety concerns: screens can become unusable if power is lost, while door-handle designs have already contributed to millions of recalls. The shift is not confined to China; Mercedes-Benz is also adding buttons to new models.

APEC will test China’s economic and diplomatic leverage

Bloomberg’s Roz Matheson says the 21 APEC economies represent 60% of global output, while China’s dollar-denominated exports rose about 35% year over year in October. China’s EV, technology, and supply-chain dominance creates opportunity but also accusations of subsidies, dumping, and using rare-earth supplies as leverage. The summit will be shadowed by allegations involving NVIDIA’s former CEO and a suspected Chinese spy, which China denies; U.S. lawmakers may use the episode to demand tougher export controls. Leaders will also watch Xi Jinping’s interaction with Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi over Taiwan, energy discussions linked to Iran and Ukraine, and whether U.S.-China trade talks produce anything beyond broad statements.

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Show notes

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Host Nathan Hager take a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week.

  • In the US – a look ahead to Nvidia earnings, with a focus on 3 stocks for the week ahead. They include: Nvidia, Walt Disney, and Walmart.
  • In the UK – a look ahead to UK labour market data from the last three months.
  • In Asia – a look ahead to next week’s APEC summit.

 

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