Trump Shifts to Remote Rallies; Binance Suffers Massive Crypto Hack
· Summarized
Key takeaways
- President Trump canceled planned in-person rallies in Kansas and Iowa and shifted to tele-rallies, while the Republican National Committee said he would hold nearly 20 such events before Election Day.
- The broadcast cited 6% higher consumer prices, 39% higher gasoline prices, lower inflation-adjusted wages, and weaker consumer sentiment as evidence that affordability concerns were not fake.
- Terry Haynes said the remaining election contest was primarily a turnout operation and that the enthusiasm gap between Democrats and Republicans was only about two points in competitive states and districts.
- Investigations and subpoenas followed controversies over alleged ballot-stacking efforts in Alaska and potentially illegal mail-in ballots in California, creating a risk of post-election volatility.
- Israel’s election left Netanyahu’s bloc ahead but short of the 61 seats needed to govern, making coalition negotiations difficult and another election possible.
- Bloomberg Economics’ Sian Daoud viewed $120–$130 per barrel as a more sustainable oil ceiling than $150, arguing that much of the Iran-related geopolitical risk was already priced in.
- The Binance hack affected $6.3 billion in funds, with approximately $3 billion frozen; TRM Labs attributed the theft to North Korea’s TraderTraitor hacking unit.
- Amazon’s $77 billion quarterly property-and-equipment spending pushed trailing free cash flow to negative $42 billion, while Intel’s weak PC outlook and supply-chain problems sent its stock down 26%.
Summary
Trump replaces final Kansas and Iowa rallies with tele-rallies
With four days remaining before the election, Nathan Hager and Karen Moscow reported that President Trump had canceled planned in-person rallies in Kansas and Iowa and would instead hold tele-rallies. A planned Sunday rally in Dubuque for Republican Senate candidate Ashley Hinsent was also converted to a tele-rally. The Republican National Committee said Trump would hold nearly 20 such events before Election Day, arguing that the format could reach more voters in the limited time remaining. Vice President JD Vance also canceled an in-person Minnesota event connected to alleged fraud; no reason was given and it was unclear whether it would be rescheduled. Trump dismissed suggestions that Republican Senator Roger Marshall was in trouble against Democrat Adam Hamilton, saying he would be in Florida rather than hold a tele-rally the next day. Before the cancellations, Trump traveled to South Carolina to support Republican candidate Darling Graham, who is running to hold her late brother Lindsey Graham’s Senate seat. Trump said that although she was leading, voters could not take politics for granted. The latest New York Times/Siena poll put Graham and Democrat Any Andrews at roughly 48% each, prompting Fox News to move the race to “toss-up,” while the Cook Political Report still rated it “leaning Republican.”
Affordability remains a political liability despite Trump’s claims
Bloomberg’s Amy Morris reported that Trump continued to characterize complaints about affordability as fake, even though the economic figures cited on the program pointed in the opposite direction. Since Trump took office, consumer prices were reported to be 6% higher, gasoline prices 39% higher, inflation-adjusted wages lower, and consumer sentiment sharply below its level before his inauguration. Voters ranked the cost of living among their top concerns in the election. In an interview, Pangea Policy founder Terry Haynes said the decision to shift from physical rallies should not automatically be read as a sign of weakness. Trump had been traveling extensively, Haynes said, and tele-rallies might reach more people in a video-driven media environment. Still, Haynes argued that personal appearances could have helped in several of the seven most competitive Senate races. He said Trump’s presence would likely be welcome in Texas, mixed in Michigan, and unwelcome in Maine, but that the “cake is probably pretty well baked” and the remaining contest was mainly about turnout. Haynes cautioned that the national enthusiasm gap looked much smaller in competitive states and districts—about two points in one Cook Political Data survey—and said Republicans were effectively testing whether Trump’s personal popularity could bring their voters to the polls.
Ballot controversies in Alaska and California could produce post-election volatility
The Alaska Senate race became the subject of investigations after The New York Times reported that Democrat Mary Peltola’s campaign had encouraged recruitment of additional candidates, including a retired teacher with the same name, to appear on the ballot against Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan. Peltola addressed the controversy with supporters, while Trump called for her criminal prosecution. The broadcast noted that so-called ballot stacking is generally considered legal. Attorney General Todd Blanche declined to discuss any criminal investigation but accused Democrats of cheating. In California, Bloomberg Law reported that federal prosecutors had begun subpoenaing state and local officials over the administration of mail-in ballots that the Justice Department alleged were illegal. The effort followed a federal judge’s rejection of the department’s attempt to force California to set aside as many as 20,000 ballots it said might have been cast by non-citizens. The program did not identify the officials being targeted or the possible charges. Haynes said neither party had “covered themselves in glory” while seeking an advantage, and predicted volatility after the election—not only from disputed races, but also from a likely fight over fiscal policy and an escalation of tensions with Iran.
Israel lacks a clear coalition after Netanyahu’s bloc falls short
The program turned overseas to Israel, where Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his allies had secured 53 parliamentary seats, ahead of the main opposition bloc’s 48 but short of the 61 needed for a majority in the 120-seat Knesset. Bloomberg’s Dan Williams explained that Israel’s president would consult the leaders of each party and ask who should receive the first opportunity to form a governing coalition. Williams said Gadi Eisenkot, described as Netanyahu’s main rival, would presumably receive the first opportunity because more parliamentary supporters appeared to back him. Eisenkot would have up to 28 days, potentially with an extension, to assemble a coalition. However, the numbers did not clearly work for either Eisenkot or Netanyahu. Unless there were a dramatic defection from Eisenkot’s bloc, Williams said Israel could be heading toward another election in the coming months. Israel’s election monitor was also calling for an investigation into possible foreign meddling after Netanyahu and far-right allies alleged unusually high turnout among Arab citizens. Arab parties were projected to win approximately 19 seats and denied vote-rigging and fraud allegations.
Iran tensions lift oil, but Bloomberg Economics sees a ceiling below $150
Oil prices rose after reports that the United States might resume military strikes against Iran. The Wall Street Journal reported that a senior commander had briefed President Trump on military options. Bloomberg Economics’ Sian Daoud said oil could temporarily reach almost any price during a major shock, but argued that $120 to $130 a barrel was a more sustainable ceiling than the $150 level feared by some analysts. Daoud’s reasoning was that much of the geopolitical escalation had already been incorporated into oil prices. She pointed to the unusual combination of rising prices and rising flows from the region: if supply flows were increasing under normal conditions, prices should be falling, so the divergence suggested that the market was embedding a large geopolitical risk premium. At the time of the broadcast, West Texas Intermediate was up 1.4% at $103.44 a barrel and Brent was at $116.50. Haynes separately told the host that he did not expect the Senate result to substantially change Trump’s Iran policy. In his view, Trump would pursue his foreign-policy priorities regardless, and the absence of a large Democratic opposition would make it harder for Congress to stop him on foreign-policy matters.
Binance hack and weak technology earnings pressure markets
Binance, described as the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, suffered what the program and episode description called the largest crypto theft on record. Binance said $6.3 billion in funds were affected, with about $3 billion in crypto frozen, and suspended withdrawals while it worked with law enforcement and carried out a security revamp. The company said it would cover losses, that user funds were safe, and that withdrawals were expected to resume by Sunday. Blockchain intelligence firm TRM Labs attributed the heist to North Korea’s elite hacking unit, TraderTraitor. Technology shares also weakened after several disappointing earnings reports. Intel plunged 26% after its revenue forecast missed analysts’ estimates, with management citing soft demand for PC processors, limited IT budgets, memory constraints, and supply-chain problems involving data-center components. Bloomberg equity strategist Ruhela Amin said the PC business represented about half of Intel’s sales and that the softness could continue into the first half of the following year; Intel’s shares had more than doubled earlier in the year. Amazon fell 6.5% after reporting higher-than-expected capital spending and the slowest growth in its core e-commerce business in three years. AWS revenue grew 39%, its fastest rate in nearly five years, but Amazon spent $77 billion on property and equipment in the quarter and trailing free cash flow fell to negative $42 billion. Reddit dropped nearly 22% after giving a revenue outlook below estimates and proposing to restrict access to its platform to encourage account registration, raising concerns about traffic and already-declining active U.S. users.
Other headlines: helicopter crash, Patrick Stewart’s death, and sports
Bloomberg’s Michael Barr reported that two helicopters collided and crashed in a field near Portland, Oregon, killing all three people aboard. Yamhill County Sheriff Sam Elliott said the cause was not yet known. The scene was turned over to the FAA and the National Transportation Safety Board, and recovery efforts were continuing. A portion of a state highway was closed; one aircraft had come from Jerry Trimble Helicopters. Barr also reported that actor Patrick Stewart had died at 86 from Alzheimer’s disease and Lewy body dementia. Stewart was best known to many viewers as Captain Jean-Luc Picard in “Star Trek: The Next Generation” and later played Professor X in the “X-Men” films. Separately, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth reportedly dismissed Army Lieutenant General Brett Sylvia after allegations that he disclosed classified information publicly; the matter was referred to the Justice Department. Trump appeared to refer to Sylvia as a woman while discussing the case. In Philadelphia, thieves stole five pallets of beef from a locked trailer while the driver slept, the second food-cargo theft reported there that week and the fourth in two months. In sports, Green Bay defeated Carolina 27–19 on Jordan Love’s three touchdown passes, a game featuring five turnovers. The WNBA championship series was headed to a decisive Game Seven after Minnesota defeated Golden State 80–69, and Milwaukee scheduled a parade for the champion Brewers.
Show notes
Today's top stories, with context, in just 15 minutes.
On today's podcast:
1) Just days ahead of the Midterm elections, President Trump canceled appearances in Kansas and Iowa and will instead hold "a large number of tele-rallies." The Republican National Committee said the tele-rallies "can reach more voters in the limited time left before polls close." The president has been campaigning nonstop — chiefly in states where Republicans are usually assured of victory — but this year faces robust challenges from Democratic candidates who have taken advantage of voter discontent over rising costs as well as the war in Iran.
2) Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, has suffered the industry’s biggest-ever hack, with $6.3 billion worth of funds affected and $3 billion in crypto frozen. The company will cover all losses and “user funds are safe,” it said, and withdrawals are expected to resume by Sunday as it works with law enforcement and completes a security revamp. Blockchain intelligence firm TRM Labs said North Korea was behind the heist, which it called “the largest crypto theft on record,” and attributed the attack to North Korea’s elite hacking unit, TraderTraitor.
3) Amazon shares dropped after the company reported greater capital spending than anticipated and the slowest growth in the core e-commerce business in three years. Intel shares also fell after its revenue forecast missed analysts' estimates, hurt by demand for PC processors and supply-chain problems with data center components. Overall, disappointing tech earnings accelerated a rotation out of the tech sector.
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