Bloomberg Daybreak: Europe Edition
Daybreak Weekend: Housing Data, German Elections, Alibaba Earnings
· Summarized
Key takeaways
- January housing data is set to show declines in housing starts, with rising mortgage rates and home prices impacting buyer urgency.
- Germany's election outcome is vital for the future of its economy, with potential shifts in market-friendly policies and coalition negotiations.
- Rivian is expected to show growth amid operational improvements, while Alibaba is recovering, yet faces challenges in tariffs and competition.
Summary
US Housing Data and Economic Outlook
Tom Busby kicks off the episode by discussing upcoming housing data in the United States, particularly focusing on the January housing starts and existing home sales. He features Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Drew Redding, who provides insights into the current state of the housing market. Redding notes that while the weather and economic conditions have been challenging, public builders are cautiously adjusting production levels. He highlights a predicted decline in housing starts, reinforced by rising mortgage rates and a lack of urgency among buyers due to rising home prices, leading to ongoing challenges in both new and existing home sales.
Implications of the German Elections
Next, we shift focus to Germany's upcoming elections, emphasizing the critical stakes involved, including economic growth, domestic security, and migration. Bloomberg’s Stephen Carroll discusses recent polling, revealing conservative Friedrich Merz as a front-runner against incumbent Olaf Scholz. Carroll notes the fragmented political landscape and potential complications in forming coalitions. Analysts foresee a possible shift in regulatory frameworks depending on the election outcomes, although uncertainties remain regarding compromises among mainstream parties and the influence of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AFD).
Earnings Reports: Rivian and Alibaba
The discussion transitions to market predictions surrounding Rivian's fourth-quarter earnings, with analyst Steve Mann suggesting the company is likely to report positive gains attributed to operational changes and an essential partnership with Volkswagen. He also mentions the challenges facing the electric vehicle industry under the current U.S. administration. The episode wraps with a look ahead at Alibaba's earnings, highlighting recovery in the Chinese consumer market supported by government stimulus, despite concerns over tariffs and the competitive landscape.
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Show notes
Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Tom Busby takes a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week.
- In the US – a look at U.S housing data and earnings from the EV maker Rivian.
- In the UK – a look at upcoming German elections.
- In Asia – a look ahead to earnings from Alibaba and economic data in South Korea.
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