Fed holds rates, but a future hike is pretty inevitable

The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at its meeting, even as it acknowledged that inflation remains elevated. Chairman Worsh did not explain the decision in much detail during a roughly 30-minute press conference, saying instead that the Fed would deliver price stability “no ifs ands or buts.” Beginning next year, the Fed plans to use one of its eight annual meetings for “strategic deliberations” rather than an interest-rate vote; in 2028, it plans to hold two such meetings. The host’s interpretation was that, despite the pause, rates are headed upward over the short term. Marketplace spoke with small-business owners and lenders about the effect. Tiffany Turner of Drift Hospitality, which owns hotels along the Washington and Oregon coast, would like to upgrade fireplaces, add food and drinks at one property and replace a roof. The improvements would cost about $300,000, including nearly $100,000 for the roof. She would prefer to borrow against the substantial equity in her buildings, but may not proceed if borrowing is too expensive. Quentin Leedy, CFO of First National Bank, Colorado, said the bank has seen a slowdown in new-loan demand because election uncertainty and rising rates discourage expansion. Kyle LaFond of Natural Contract Manufacturing in Madison, Wisconsin, said banks had been reluctant to finance bottle-filling equipment and storage tanks, so he turned to investors and company friends at interest rates of 8.5% to 10.5%.

Marketplace’s Caitlin Tan followed Mike Vickery, a Wyoming brand inspector with nearly 38 years on the job, as he checked cattle being shipped from Sublette County. At one ranch, about 150 cattle were being loaded onto semis. Vickery examined each animal for the ranch’s “ME” brand to verify that the people selling or transporting the cattle had the legal right to do so. The cattle were packed into a muddy pen, their backs covered in frost, and Vickery inspected all 150 in less than half an hour. He then recorded the number of animals and the buyer in a small printer inside his truck and made sure a veterinarian checked their health numbers so sick cattle would not enter a feedlot and eventually the food supply. Vickery said that shipment represented almost half a million dollars, making the inspection crucial both to the beef supply chain and to the rancher being paid. Brands remain important because electronic ear tags can be ripped out; permanent brands originated as protection against cattle theft, especially in the 1800s. Vickery emphasized that modern brand inspection is not a movie-style gunfight: inspectors are not deputized, and mistaken possession of another rancher’s cow is generally an honest error among people who know one another. Vickery’s own family ranch uses an “F” and a sideways “F.” He is retiring from the state job after the current fall season to spend more time with his grandchildren.

The episode’s “My Economy” segment featured Annie Gilstrap, a 32-year-old mother living in suburban Chicago with her husband, daughter, grandmother and parents. Gilstrap borrowed $64,700 in private Sallie Mae loans to study vocal performance and pursue opera. While studying, she shifted her ambitions toward arts administration, but by 2020 or 2021 she was paying between $1,100 and $1,200 every month. Gilstrap said the amount she has paid toward the loans has grown larger than the original balance, which she finds difficult to accept. In 2024, with her parents’ support, she and her husband moved in with them so they could eliminate rent and direct the extra money toward her student debt. She acknowledged that she is fortunate to have that option and that many borrowers facing the same pressure do not have family housing available. Her experience has also changed how she plans to advise her daughter: Gilstrap still wants to encourage her to pursue her dreams, but wants her to understand the full consequences of taking on debt. The broader figures presented by Marketplace put total U.S. student-loan debt just below $1.9 trillion, roughly the size of Florida’s economy, while a recent Student Debt Crisis Center survey found that nearly two-thirds of borrowers had reduced spending on healthcare, food or housing to make payments.

Stock and bond traders largely shrugged off the Fed’s decision to leave rates unchanged and the chairman’s press conference. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 97 points, or 0.2%, to 52,475. The Nasdaq gained 72 points, or 0.3%, to 26,549, and the S&P 500 added 21 points, or 0.3%, to 6,743. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose to 5.01% as bond prices fell. The major individual-company news was a proposal from Trian Fund Management to buy Wendy’s and take the burger chain private for $1.4 billion. Trian has been a shareholder, and Wendy’s has reported declining same-store sales for six consecutive quarters. Wendy’s shares jumped 15.1% on the news. McDonald’s rose 0.4%, while Shake Shack gained 4.1%; host Kai Ryssdal added his personal view that Shake Shack is “kind of overrated.” The segment’s larger point was that investors treated the Fed’s non-move as expected rather than as a major change in the economic outlook.

At a Costco outside Minneapolis, shoppers were buying different quantities and brands of toilet paper as prices rose. Costco’s Kirkland 30-roll pack was on sale for $2.99 with a $3 discount, while a comparable Charmin pack cost $29.99—$12 more than the store brand. Shoppers described dividing their purchases among stores: Aldi for produce, Trader Joe’s for frozen food and Costco for paper products. Kirsten Halloran said she switches to store brands when name-brand prices are about double, while Rick Summerall continued buying Charmin because of his wife’s preference. Michael Collins, a household-finance professor at the University of Wisconsin, has studied nine years of scanner data and argued that toilet paper is useful as an economic indicator because virtually everyone needs it and there are few true substitutes. When consumers feel financially comfortable—such as after tax season—they buy about 20% more. When money is tight, they buy less and choose cheaper products. Morningstar analyst Aaron Lash recalled that during the Great Financial Crisis, people were “counting squares” and manufacturers carried less inventory because households were using less toilet paper. Current signals are mixed: consumers appear to be buying less but continuing to choose premium brands, suggesting that many still have jobs and can afford familiar products while inflation forces them to reduce quantities. Collins said even when people can technically afford their usual product, a price increase makes them feel they are sacrificing necessities.

Caroline Haskins of Wired described TikTok videos in which people dismantle old microwaves or run electrical wire through machines that separate the copper. The videos often end with the creator holding a small bundle of recovered metal. The participants include electricians using wire from their jobs, teenagers looking for extra money and people who treat the repetitive work as a side hustle or hobby. Haskins stressed that stripping copper itself is not especially profitable: even with copper near $6 or $7 per pound, someone can spend several hours dismantling machinery and make only about $40 net. The more lucrative opportunities may come from the platform rather than the scrap. Creators can qualify for TikTok’s creator-fund-style payments by attracting views, or advertise products through the TikTok Shop. Haskins cited one creator who rarely strips copper because it is not a good use of his time but said wire strippers became one of his most popular advertised products. Economists and other observers connect the trend to economic insecurity. One expert who studies copper theft said people need a level of financial precarity to overcome the barriers—ethical, legal or practical—to taking copper if they believe the return will be worthwhile. The episode closed by noting that UPS, FedEx and the National Retail Federation still expect a strong holiday season, with spending forecast to rise 4.2% to slightly more than $1 trillion, though inflation accounts for part of that increase.