What's in AI's next chapter?

Kai Ryssdal opens with Anthropic’s long-awaited Securities and Exchange Commission Form S-1, filed that morning. The company is seeking to begin trading roughly a week before Thanksgiving under the ticker “ANT.” The filing does not specify how much Anthropic hopes to raise or what valuation it expects, but earlier reporting has put the possible fundraising target around $100 billion and the valuation somewhere between $1.5 trillion and $2 trillion. Anthropic says both its capital expenditures and indebtedness will increase “substantially.” Its 94 pages of risk factors include “catastrophic or existential risks to humanity,” even as the company seeks public investors. Marketplace’s Stephanie Hughes frames the week’s expected earnings reports from Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon as chapters in an ongoing AI story. Dan Ives-Hathorn of Capital.com says investors want evidence that the companies’ heavy AI spending is producing strong demand and higher revenue, while also watching their forward guidance for clues about what comes next. Gil Luria of DA Davidson says the existing stories are encouraging, but the more important and impressive developments may still be ahead. S&P Global Market Intelligence’s Melissa Otto says Anthropic’s filing will offer a clearer view of how a company focused solely on AI is growing and monetizing the ecosystem. AI is already the main character, Hughes concludes, but investors still do not know whether it will be the hero or the anti-hero. Ryssdal adds that Microsoft plans voluntary buyouts for 60,000 employees—about a quarter of its workforce—as it funds its AI investments.

Marketplace’s Mitchell Hartman reports that several major central banks are meeting during the week: the Federal Reserve on Tuesday and Wednesday, the Bank of Canada on Wednesday, the European Central Bank on Thursday and the Bank of Japan on Friday. Although they face similar problems, Hartman says they are unlikely to respond identically. Canada is in a particularly difficult position, according to Jennifer Lee of BMO Capital Markets. The trade war has damaged business and consumer confidence, and three-quarters of Canada’s exports go to the United States. A rate hike could deepen that downturn, but higher energy prices are also feeding inflation; Lee says she feels the pressure personally while watching the cost of filling her car. The Bank of Canada is nevertheless expected to raise rates. In Europe, disrupted oil and gas supplies are also pushing inflation higher, but unrest in France makes a rate increase less likely. Richard de Chazal of William Blair says a hike would worsen the situation. Former Fed Governor Frederic Mishkin says U.S. inflation remains too high and has been above the target range for almost five years, which would normally support higher rates. But President Trump’s unprecedented attacks on Fed independence have made officials cautious before the midterm elections: a hike could prompt Trump to accuse the Fed of acting politically. Mishkin expects the Fed to resume raising rates twice by early 2027.

Ryssdal speaks with Stephanie Silverman, who runs Nashville’s Belcourt Theatre. Silverman describes the independent theater as operating “on all cylinders,” driven by repeated sellouts for the Elizabeth Holmes documentary that people cannot stop talking about. The rest of the year also looks strong because of the films scheduled to come to the theater. Attendance is enthusiastic generally, but concession sales are running somewhat below what the theater would expect from its box office: concessions normally track at about 50% of box-office sales. Silverman thinks customers are being more careful with their money. Belcourt members pay $10.50 per movie, a price Silverman jokes is moving from 1980s pricing toward 1990s pricing. The theater has raised prices for both members and nonmembers for the first time in nearly three years, but Silverman says philanthropic donors help it balance box-office revenue with affordability and keep the theater accessible to Nashville. Staffing is stable, with little turnover, although the rising cost of living makes it harder for employees—and the theater—to keep up. Discussing the Holmes film, Silverman says its appeal comes partly from offering something in the cultural conversation that is not about politics, inflation or the economy. She also credits its creative storytelling and calls it a particularly “theatrical documentary,” a demanding format that has drawn audiences back repeatedly.

The Department of Energy has again placed helium on its list of critical materials. The qualification is that a material must be essential to an energy technology and at high risk of supply-chain disruption. Marketplace’s Caitlin Tan begins with a chemistry lesson from Richard Brock of Garrison Ventures: helium is the first noble gas on the far-right column of the periodic table and the coldest element, which makes it useful for cooling MRI machines and for manufacturing microchips. As chip demand grows, manufacturers need a reliable helium supply to make components. Helium was placed on the critical-minerals list in 2018, then removed after several years of steady supply. Phil Kornbluth, another helium consultant, says that removal was probably premature. The supply situation deteriorated after the Strait of Hormuz closed, cutting off Qatar, the world’s second-largest supplier. The United States is now “the last person standing” and is experiencing what Kornbluth calls “helium shortage 5.0.” He says the shortage could end quickly if the strait reopened, while production is likely increasing in Wyoming and new companies are exploring projects in the Southwest and Minnesota. Those startups face a major financing problem because they have no existing revenue stream. More government support could become available now that helium is critical again, and the designation may also help with permitting. Tan notes that a worsening shortage could affect iPhones, other electronics and data centers—though some people might not consider that entirely bad news.

Ryssdal reports that a one-year Treasury bill was paying just under 4.5%, while a 10-year Treasury note was paying just under 5%. Normally, longer-term government debt offers a higher yield because investors’ money is tied up for longer. Marketplace’s Justin Ho explains that the widening gap reflects unease: even relatively safe Treasuries can lose value before maturity if interest rates rise. Manuel Much of the Frankfurt School of Finance and Management describes the extra compensation investors demand for taking that risk as the “term premium.” A 30-year bond generally requires a larger premium because many things can change over three decades. Much’s model indicates that term premiums have risen over the past five years; one 10-year premium nearly doubled over the past year, from roughly 0.5% to 1 percentage point. John Canavan of Oxford Economics says investors are concerned that the government will issue large amounts of new Treasury debt to finance the national debt. If demand cannot keep pace with supply, bond values could fall, so investors demand additional yield. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are raising uncertainty about oil prices and future inflation as well. Kerala Binder of the University of Texas at Austin adds that uncertainty about the Fed’s response to renewed inflation is being amplified by Chair Kevin Warsh’s less-transparent approach, leaving investors less certain about both short- and long-term rates and therefore demanding an even higher premium.

The United States has a housing shortage of at least four million homes, but new housing increasingly competes with farmland. The American Farmland Trust estimated that developments paved over or otherwise compromised about 2,000 acres of farmland per day three or four years earlier. In Ashland, Missouri, retired farmer Dan Kibler watched farms along his two-mile dead-end road get divided into parcels and wanted his own 30 acres—where he had grown fruits and vegetables for a farmers market—to remain agricultural. Kibler worked with the Green Belt Land Trust of Mid-Missouri to place a conservation or agricultural easement on the deed. The restriction stays with the property permanently, regardless of ownership: it cannot be subdivided or sold for residential or commercial development. Executive director Nick Shapiro says the land trust expanded from protecting forests and wetlands into farmland because farming is central to Missouri’s economy, culture and heritage. USDA data indicates that at least 50 million Midwestern acres will change hands by the end of the decade as farmers and landowners age. The downside is financial. An easement can reduce resale value because appraisers judge land by its most profitable potential use, which is usually development rather than farming. Josh Wright of American Farmland Trust says securing one can take years. Rick Moresky, who farms 40 acres near Kansas City, says the process can cost about $25,000 and result in lost value. Federal programs have preserved more than one million acres, but over half is in Montana, Colorado and California; no Missouri farmland has yet been restricted through the federal program.

Wall Street rose broadly. The Dow gained 146 points, or 0.3%, to 52,361; the Nasdaq rose 214 points, or 0.8%, to 26,169; and the S&P 500 added 53 points, or 0.7%, to 7,676. Technology stocks led the move after AI-related news: Broadcom gained 2.3%, Nvidia 2.4%, and Dell and CoreWeave also rose. CoreWeave, described as a “neocloud” company that had recently sold off, recovered 1.8%. Treasury prices rose, bringing the 10-year yield down to 4.99%. In the closing note, Ryssdal distinguishes between the fundamental value of oil and the price investors are actually paying amid geopolitical uncertainty. Axios reports that JPMorgan estimates Brent crude’s fair value, based on supply and demand, at $94 per barrel. Brent closed at $115.20, leaving roughly $20 per barrel attributable to an oil risk premium. Ryssdal says the premium reflects the risks already discussed, including conflict, disrupted supplies and uncertainty about inflation.