Squawk on the Street

9AM HOUR: Stocks' Post-Midterms Rally, AMD CEO "First on CNBC", CVS CEO Exclusive on Breakup Plan 11/4/26

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Key takeaways

  • The midterm results were viewed as more likely to slow or make data-center construction expensive than to eliminate long-term AI-compute demand.
  • AMD CEO Lisa Su said demand exceeds supply, projected more than 80% growth next year, and maintained AMD’s $1 trillion 2030 data-center market opportunity.
  • Su said AMD’s growth forecast is supported by customer and supply-chain commitments, but successful expansion still depends on coordinating memory, packaging, power, land, and complete data-center infrastructure.
  • The hosts interpreted the broad market rally as a reaction to lower tariff and contested-election risks, though they repeatedly warned that early post-election judgments could change.
  • Cramer viewed Arista as a core beneficiary of continued data-center scaling because its networking connects nodes and GPUs more efficiently.
  • CVS said its planned split reflects a successful turnaround and changing regulatory and market conditions; the company expects to demonstrate the strength of both successor businesses over 15 to 18 months.

Summary

Democrats’ sweep creates uncertainty for data-center financing

Carl Quintanilla opened with Democrats taking both the House and Senate in the midterms, alongside major Texas wins by James Tallarico and Gina Hinojosa. Jim Cramer argued that Hinojosa’s victory would not end Texas’s data-center industry, but could make financing and permitting much harder, especially for leveraged builders such as Hut 8, CoreWeave, and IREN. David Faber said Amazon could benefit because tighter construction would force it to slow spending while increasing the value of existing capacity. The anchors noted that 29 jurisdictions had approved data-center restrictions, often by large margins.

The anchors debate why voters rejected data centers

Cramer initially rejected pollution and electricity concerns as the main reason voters opposed data centers, arguing that communities feared AI would take jobs away and create a “job apocalypse.” Faber said opposition could also reflect anxiety about AI’s physical manifestation and uncertain employment effects. They agreed that Texas’s incoming administration might focus less on banning facilities than on removing tax breaks, charging sales tax on electricity, and slowing permits. Cramer said capital costs were already hurting marginal builders and that the election could be a “coup de grâce,” while incumbents with cash and capacity would benefit.

AMD’s Lisa Su says demand exceeds supply and growth is accelerating

AMD CEO Lisa Su told the hosts that third-quarter results exceeded expectations, with data-center revenue up more than 40% year over year and sequential data-center growth guided at 50% for the fourth quarter. AMD had deployed its newest racks at Anthropic, OpenAI, Microsoft, Oracle, and Meta, and Su said the company expected more than 80% growth the following year—over twice its prior long-term model. She attributed the change to accelerating AI demand, stronger customer confidence in AMD products, and new agentic workloads emerging over the prior three to six months.

Su defends AMD’s roadmap, supply chain, and $1 trillion market view

Su said most of AMD’s projected growth was already under contract with customers and supply-chain partners, although constraints extended across wafers, substrates, advanced packaging, memory, land, power, and data-center infrastructure rather than one bottleneck. She described AMD’s CPU and AI-accelerator position as strong, citing the Venice CPU, Helios, and MI455, plus leadership in memory bandwidth. Su maintained AMD’s roughly $1 trillion data-center total addressable market for 2030 despite political resistance to new facilities, saying the industry must explain its local value more clearly and work with communities. Gross margin was 56% in the third quarter and guided to 55% in the fourth.

Arista is presented as the infrastructure winner behind AI expansion

After the AMD interview, Cramer called Arista Networks another “blowout,” praising CEO Jayshree Ullal and noting that revenue had risen 58.5%. He argued that Arista supplies the networking needed to scale data centers across and between nodes and GPUs, making the company a more fundamental infrastructure play than the headline-sensitive AMD trade. Cramer said this view did not necessarily imply a bad Cisco quarter; rather, both could perform well. He linked the opportunity to a future in which fewer data centers may have to handle more computing efficiently.

Musk’s political setback pressures Tesla and SpaceX, but Cramer sees a buying opportunity

Tesla and SpaceX fell after Elon Musk spent nearly half a billion dollars supporting Republican campaigns that failed in the midterms. Musk posted on X that “data centers in space” looked appealing and joked that his “election interfering space lasers” had not worked. Cramer called the reaction a temporary zeitgeist effect and said investors do not vote on SpaceX; they buy the company. Faber agreed Musk’s political power may have diminished but said it was unclear how that would affect business deals. Cramer remained skeptical of space-based data centers, though he said he believed in the concept because it appeared in investor Jen-Hsun Huang’s numbers.

The opening rally is interpreted as a rejection of tariffs and political gridlock

The Dow opened nearly 1,000 points higher, with the anchors attributing the rally to reduced uncertainty, the possibility of Congress reclaiming tariff authority, and expectations that tariffs would be less inflationary under divided government. Cramer called tariffs a disaster that changed neither the trade deficit nor the political mood, while Faber said the absence of a contested-election crisis helped markets. Oil was falling, raising hopes for lower inflation and interest rates. They also discussed whether Democrats’ larger margins would limit the influence of the party’s far-left members and reduce fears of immediate capital-gains or estate-tax increases.

Stocks react unevenly across health care, defense, energy, and retail

The anchors connected Texas’s Democratic result to gains in HCA Healthcare, Molina, and Centene on expectations of expanded health-care coverage or funding. Home Depot rose sharply despite Cramer questioning whether the election could suddenly make housing affordable; he likewise called some tariff-related stock moves factious. Defense stocks such as RTX weakened on expectations that war and rearmament might be less likely, while Cramer preferred aerospace exposure through GE and Boeing. Clean-energy names including First Solar, Sunrun, Plug, and NextPower bounced from lows, with Cramer specifically recommending NXT as an earnings-driven trade.

Earnings still matter: Riot, Micron, McDonald’s, Uber, and Booking

Riot rose after signing a 15-year powered-land lease tied to its Versicana facility, reportedly worth $28 billion initially and up to $54 billion with two five-year extensions; the tenant was not disclosed, though the anchors suspected Anthropic. The deal could reduce Riot’s debt and capital-expenditure needs. Cramer said McDonald’s was encouraged by same-store sales of negative 1.5% versus a negative 1.35% expectation and signs that CEO Chris Kempczinski was regaining franchisee support. They also characterized Uber and Booking as evidence of a strong consumer benefiting from lower gasoline prices. Separately, Cramer said a PC glut could restrain DRAM pricing, helping explain strength in Apple.

CVS says the breakup follows a two-year turnaround, not weakness

CVS Health CEO David Joyner said the company would split into a health-care business containing Aetna and Caremark and a separately led CVS Pharmacy, with separation expected to take 15 to 18 months. He described the decision as one made from strength after improving Aetna’s Medicare performance and turning retail pharmacy guidance from a 5% decline two years earlier to a third consecutive year of growth. Third-quarter revenue was $108.4 billion, while operating cash flow reached $15.5 billion versus a prior minimum expectation of $11.5 billion. Joyner said the businesses would retain strong balance sheets and investment-grade characteristics.

Joyner says CVS is gaining share and can withstand regulatory change

Joyner said regulation was one factor in the separation, citing changing market conditions since CVS and Caremark combined in 2006 and Aetna joined eight years ago, as well as bipartisan proposals targeting pharmacy-benefit managers. Caremark will remain with the Aetna-led health-care company, while Prem Shah, a pharmacist and ten-year CVS veteran, will lead the pharmacy business. Joyner rejected the idea that Walmart or Amazon were taking share, saying CVS had gained share through stores, delivery, and drive-through service. He said bankers would not predict the eventual valuation multiples; CVS would have to prove both businesses’ strength during the next 15 to 18 months.

Sponsors

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Show notes

Carl Quintanilla, Jim Cramer and David Faber discussed the big rally in stocks after Tuesday night's midterm election results: Democrats flipped the House and Senate, as well as gubernatorial seats in states including Texas. The anchors explored what the changing balance of power could mean for the AI trade — as SpaceX, Tesla and neocloud names such as CoreWeave fell sharply. In a "First on CNBC" interview, AMD CEO Lisa Su spoke about everything from the chipmaker's quarterly beat to the future for AI in light of the Dems' victory in the midterms. CVS Health Chairman & CEO David Joyner joined the program exclusively at Post 9 to talk about the healthcare giant's plan to split into two publicly-traded companies. Also in focus: Elon Musk's X post on the midterms; Reaction to earnings from the likes of McDonald's and Uber.

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