10AM Hour: Tariffs, Tech, and the Memory Trade, Intel Loses Post-Earnings Gains, Mortgage Rates at One Year High 7/24/26

Key takeaways

The stock market is currently in a cautious state, with uncertainty driven by geopolitical tensions, trade policy developments, and macroeconomic factors.
Renewed tariffs and geopolitical conflicts, especially in the Middle East, continue to impact investor sentiment and market stability.
Intel’s earnings reveal strong revenue but signal caution with high valuations, upcoming capex, and potential dilution concerns.
Memory chip stocks are positioned for further gains driven by AI demand and supply-demand imbalances, with potential for durability beyond 2026.
Rising mortgage rates threaten the housing market, which remains choppy amid supply adjustments and demographic shifts.
Major banks report earnings strength, with dividend increases indicating financial stability, but valuations and future growth depend on broader economic conditions.
AI investments are central to financial sector strategy, aimed at improving advisor productivity and strengthening client relationships rather than replacing human advisors.
Market volatility tends to decrease in late summer, but current risks suggest continued watchfulness for economic and geopolitical developments.

Summary

Market Overview and Sentiment

The episode opens with a discussion on the market's search for stability following a recent tech-led selloff and a spike in oil prices. Renewed tariff fears are adding uncertainty, causing some stocks like Intel to pull back after initial post-earnings gains. The outlook remains cautious as investors grapple with geopolitical risks and trade tensions.

International and Geopolitical Developments

There is coverage of military actions in the Middle East, where US forces conducted strikes against Iran to diminish its threats in critical waterways, alongside ongoing concerns about US military escalation. Concurrently, the new tariffs under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 have come into effect, targeting countries accused of forced labor practices, complicating global trade relations and possibly facing legal challenges.

Tech Sector Earnings and Market Reactions

Intel's earnings report showed strong revenue growth but was followed by a stock decline due to investor concerns about forward guidance, capital expenditures, and potential dilution. The episode highlights the impact of earnings beats in the tech sector, noting that markets are hesitant and often react negatively despite positive reports, partly due to high valuations and sell-the-news behavior.

Memory Chip Sector Outlook

Expert analysis suggests memory stocks may have further upside driven by demand for AI-related hardware and supply-demand imbalances that could persist beyond 2026. Strong growth in AI, especially in inference applications, bolsters these stocks, and supply-demand fundamentals support a durable, longer-term rally.

Housing Market and Mortgage Rates

Recent data showed a surprise increase in new home sales in June, but rising mortgage rates — hitting their highest in a year — pose risks to housing stability. An industry expert discusses the potential for mortgage rate levels to remain high amidst geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns, impacting affordability and future activity.

Financial Sector Earnings and Strategy

Major banks like Bank of America announced dividend hikes, reflecting strength in earnings, while American Express reported mixed results leading to a stock decline. Raymond James’ CEO shares insights on capital markets, M&A activity, asset management growth, technological investments—including AI—and competitive positioning within the industry.

Technology and AI Investment Strategies

Industry leaders discuss the transformative potential of AI in financial services and enterprise hardware. Raymond James emphasizes investing in AI to enhance advisor relationships, not replace them, and highlights ongoing investments in AI tools and training. Concerns about costs are balanced with the strategic importance of AI in driving productivity and growth.

Market Volatility and Investor Sentiment Indicators

The episode concludes with analysis of market volatility, noting the VIX index’s current levels and seasonal patterns. Experts suggest typical low points for volatility occur in late summer, but caution remains due to economic headwinds, geopolitical risks, and seasonal factors.

Show notes

Markets search for stability after a tech-led selloff and a spike in oil prices, with renewed tariff fears adding another layer of uncertainty for investors. On today’s Squawk on the Street, we break down what’s driving sentiment and what it means for the broader market. Plus, Intel gives up an early post-earnings rally as investors reassess the chipmaker’s outlook. Then one top analyst explains why this week’s surge in memory-chip stocks could still have much further to run. And we examine the outlook for the housing market as mortgage rates climb to their highest level in a year.

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