Squawk on the Street

11AM Hour: Exclusive Interviews with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent & St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem 8/20/26

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Key takeaways

  • The U.S. Treasury is prepared to enact further market interventions if necessary to ensure yields reflect economic fundamentals.
  • Inflation remains a central concern, but officials believe supply shocks are temporary, and structural demand, including AI investments, supports economic growth.
  • The Federal Reserve considers current rates below neutral and advocates for rate hikes to bring inflation down to 2%, focusing on data-driven, transparent policy frameworks.
  • The real estate market, after years of decline, appears to be entering an upcycle driven by structural trends, supply constraints, and infrastructure investments, with industrial and senior housing sectors showing particular promise.
  • Global geopolitical dynamics and local politics significantly influence real estate markets, especially amid shifts in supply chain configurations and demographic changes.

Summary

Treasury Market Intervention and Fiscal Strategy

Treasury Secretary Scott Besson discussed the recent decision by the Treasury to increase bond buybacks, aimed at addressing liquidity issues and signaling that yields do not fully reflect economic fundamentals. He indicated readiness to implement further measures if market conditions require it and emphasized ongoing efforts in fiscal consolidation, including potential revenue-increasing and spending reduction strategies. Besson also highlighted that the perceived peak of the deficit might be near, contingent on policy adjustments and economic conditions.

Global and Domestic Economic Outlook and Inflation

The discussion covered the current state of inflation, with Besson mentioning supply shocks from Iran and energy markets as temporary factors, while structural demand and AI-driven investments could support a stronger economy. Alberto Musalem of the St. Louis Fed explained that despite rising bond yields, real estate and other assets have appreciated, driven by growth and supply constraints. Both officials reaffirmed their focus on lowering inflation to 2% within 18 months, with Musalem stressing the importance of independent monetary policy centered around labor market and inflation data.

Federal Reserve Policy and Interest Rates

Fed President Musalem provided insight into the Federal Reserve’s approach, emphasizing that current policy rates are below the estimated neutral rate, supporting ongoing rate hikes to combat inflation. He highlighted that inflation, driven by supply shocks and persistent demand due to AI investments, needs to be managed primarily through interest rate adjustments. Musalem also pointed out that rising rates do not necessarily harm real estate values when the economy is growing, and advocated for transparent communication of the Fed's framework, targeted at achieving inflation goals.

Real Estate Market Trends and Investment Opportunities

Lauren Hochfelder of Morgan Stanley detailed her positive outlook on the real estate sector, citing a rare entry point after years of decline and significant declines in prices. She emphasized structural trends such as supply chain resilience, aging demographics, and AI infrastructure needs—especially in industrial real estate—as key drivers. Hochfelder noted that despite rising yields and potential supply increases, high demand and constrained supply could still support property appreciation, particularly in logistics and senior housing. She also acknowledged geopolitical factors and local politics as influences on real estate performance.

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Show notes

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent joins exclusively to speak about the Treasury's bond market intervention this week, the deficit, the war with Iran and much more. Then, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem joins exclusively to discuss his outlook for Fed rate policy and inflation. Plus, Morgan Stanley Head of Global Real Assets Lauren Hochfelder shares where she sees investment opportunity right now.

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