11AM Hour: Mondelez CEO, Looking Ahead to the Midterms & Apple Earnings on Deck 11/2/26

Carl Quintanilla and Sarah Eisen opened with U.S. stocks recovering modestly after Friday’s selloff and a difficult October. The S&P 500 was up about 0.7%, the Nasdaq 1%, and small caps were also rebounding, while the 10-year Treasury yield remained below 5%, around 4.9%. The Nasdaq had taken the brunt of the decline as the AI trade weakened. The hosts previewed manufacturing data, Friday’s jobs report, earnings, and the midterm elections, framing the week as a test of whether markets could repair some of the damage from the previous week.

Leslie Picker reported that Anthropic’s amended S-1 added third-quarter figures: revenue reached about $17 billion, up 1,100% year over year and 47% from the prior quarter. Operating income, positive in the second quarter, turned negative in Q3 as compute and infrastructure costs nearly doubled to $9.9 billion. Adjusted net income was $2.46 billion, up 16% quarter over quarter and positive versus a loss a year earlier. Cash and short-term investments remained around $132 billion, but capex and lease commitments totaled $895.4 billion, with annual obligations rising from roughly $5 billion this year to $29 billion next year and $44 billion in 2028.

Picker said Anthropic’s key IPO question is pricing, because volatile public markets and the recent AI selloff could affect what investors are willing to pay. She had no indication the company would postpone its offering, unlike several other IPO candidates. Investors will get a clearer signal when Anthropic begins its roadshow and sets a range implying a valuation. The company must show that revenue and profitability can keep pace with its enormous capacity commitments. Depending on the IPO proceeds, Anthropic could increase its cash balance, tap debt markets, or rely on rising profitability to fund the obligations.

Kate Rooney reported that OpenAI is now seeking up to $20 billion, down from an earlier target of $30 billion, while still pursuing a $1.25 trillion pre-money valuation versus roughly $750 billion previously. The round has not closed, and the figures could change; SoftBank and an Abu Dhabi investment vehicle were reported as potential leaders. OpenAI raised $12.2 billion in March and views the new financing as an opportunistic bridge ahead of a potential 2027 IPO. Rooney said some investors have reduced allocations because many already own OpenAI exposure and because crossover funds now transmit public-market volatility directly into private financings.

Roundhill strategist Drew Pettit said investors dislike a thesis in transition. AI initially attracted hyper-growth and momentum investors, but the market is now trying to build a longer-term ownership base, producing volatility as faster-money investors sell and raise cash for IPOs such as Anthropic’s. Pettit said rates near 5% do not break the AI investment case; he sees 5.5% moving toward 6% as more dangerous. He called credit problems at companies such as CoreWeave more isolated: unsecured bonds were down about 20% and yielded roughly 15%, while secured loans remained above par because compute demand and underlying assets were still strong.

Pettit rejected the idea that stocks had become broadly cheaper simply because forward multiples had fallen. Growth expectations remain near ten-year highs, and his reverse-DCF analysis showed that the growth required to justify current prices had not declined much. With expectations elevated, companies need great earnings and follow-through rather than merely solid results. He also rejected treating sharp gains in names such as Best Buy and Under Armour as traditional defensiveness, calling them different forms of cyclical risk. Instead of low-beta staples, he preferred uncorrelated risks such as hard-asset cyclical holdings, refiners, midstream companies, and energy, preferably bought on pullbacks.

The Apple preview called for fiscal fourth-quarter revenue growth of about 10% and mid-teens iPhone growth, despite only eight days of iPhone 18 sales being included. The December guide matters more because it will be the first full quarter for the iPhone 18 and new duo products and the first test against the iPhone 17 super cycle; Bank of America expected December sales to decline year over year. Services growth has slowed, while memory prices pressure margins. Apple remains the anti-capex AI trade, but its 35-to-40-times forward multiple leaves investors focused on whether Siri AI can catch up, particularly as HomePod Mini 2 and HomeView bring conversational features to more devices.

Mondelez CEO Dirk Van de Put said global snacking remains resilient, with slight volume growth, led by India, Brazil, and other emerging markets. Developed markets slowed in the prior year but are beginning to stabilize. In the U.S., consumers remain highly selective because inflation has pressured about 90% of them, even though spending has held up; Mondelez is responding with innovation, activations, and communication. Protein and fiber are growing faster, partly because GLP-1 users want more protein, but indulgent snacks still have substantial demand. Asia, the Middle East, and Africa delivered 5.5% volume growth versus flat North American volume, helped by lower penetration, stronger distribution, and new products.

Van de Put described Mondelez’s majority investment in Undercover Snacks, including its chocolate quinoa crisps, as a fit with the trend toward healthier but still enjoyable products. He called the products “permissible indulgence,” citing their natural and healthy ingredients, and said the company expects growth through wider distribution and new products. Mondelez is pursuing bolt-on acquisitions in selected segments and geographies rather than large transformational deals, because major acquisitions bring years of difficult integration. Pricing promotions, he added, need to be meaningful rather than routine; consumers have become too selective for indiscriminate discounts to work. Mondelez is also using AI in supply-chain forecasting and factory planning, with 2027 described as a critical adoption year.

Megan Casella said a Democratic House would gain investigative power and a Democratic Senate could confirm or reject nominees, including Supreme Court and Federal Reserve appointments, while President Trump would retain veto power and likely use executive orders. Democratic priorities include reversing Medicaid cuts, extending Affordable Care Act tax credits, ending the Iran war, and limiting presidential tariff authority; a possible bargain could exchange Iran-war funding for health-care concessions. Budget negotiations face a December 11 deadline, followed by a possible debt-ceiling crisis next summer. Gita Gopinath said the economy remains strong, with 3.4% growth and robust spending, but households are dipping into savings, whose rate has fallen to 4%, while housing, health-care costs, and inflation remain politically salient. She argued that persistent deficits are being left unresolved and that relying on AI-driven growth of 3.5% to 4% is risky.

Gopinath said recent inflation data point toward tighter monetary policy, with markets pricing roughly 125 basis points of increases in December, though she expects more could be needed. Elections, the Middle East, and a possible escalation of war add uncertainty to the rate path. She viewed Europe as more vulnerable because growth prospects are weaker, debt and pension obligations are large, politics are complicated, and a cold winter could send gas prices higher. Although AI could eventually raise productivity enough to help with fiscal problems, she said economy-wide adoption has not yet reached that scale. Data-center opposition, job disruption, cyberattacks, and other obstacles could delay the promised productivity gains.

Marvell agreed to acquire Lumentum in a major technology transaction intended to expand Marvell’s optical-connectivity business for data centers. Marvell’s CEO said combining two important suppliers would strengthen the NVIDIA ecosystem, with NVIDIA remaining the ecosystem leader. Both stocks fell after the announcement, and the hosts cited questions about the premium, regulatory clearance, the timing of the deal, and whether Marvell’s semiconductor-design model fits with Lumentum’s more capital-intensive manufacturing operations. The transaction was presented as another sentiment test for AI infrastructure as investors debate whether expected AI revenue will justify the enormous spending cycle.