Trump After the Midterms: Iran, China, and the Limits of Power

Jake Sullivan and Jon Finer introduce New York Times reporter Jonathan Swan the morning after what they describe as a political earthquake: Democrats’ sweeping 2026 midterm victory. Swan says the result was a “complete repudiation” of Donald Trump and that nearly every part of the MAGA coalition defected in significant numbers, including men, Hispanics, younger voters, and non-college whites. He points to Democrats competing in Mississippi, Louisiana, Florida, Kansas, and Texas; Kansas was taken by Democrats for the first time in almost 100 years. Elon Musk spent more than $450 million, yet Democrats still “absolutely bodied” Republicans in Texas.

Swan expects the election to produce a tense final two years rather than a quiet lame-duck period. Trump often reacts slowly to bad news, so his conciliatory election-night comments may quickly give way to attacks and an effort to assert executive power. Swan says Trump has told people he would pardon anyone who came within 250 feet of the Oval Office, while aides are preparing lawyers for congressional oversight. Democrats will control both chambers, but the presidency has accumulated especially broad unilateral authority in foreign policy, creating a potentially rocky conflict between an electorally repudiated administration and a still-powerful executive.

Swan says internal Republican polling showed that almost every major political problem had become connected to the Iran war. Among 2024 Trump voters who were defecting, ending the Iran conflict was a significant way to win them back, while voters also linked the war to the cost of living. Inflation had already shifted from being Trump’s strongest issue to one on which voters blamed him more than Biden or the Democrats. Democrats also made Epstein part of a broader corruption message about elites protecting themselves; focus groups showed Republicans and independents raising it spontaneously. Much of the Democratic strategy was to keep Republicans home rather than convert them.

Swan rejects the idea that Trump’s anti-war rhetoric made the Iran conflict inexplicable: Iran was always an exception, shaped by the Carter-era humiliation and Trump’s long-standing hawkish language. Trump withdrew from the Obama nuclear deal and approved the Soleimani strike despite advisers’ objections, then became more personally concerned after being briefed that Iran wanted to kill him. He briefly pursued diplomacy through Steve Witkoff, but would not wait for slow Iranian negotiations. After Iran’s limited response during the previous 12-day war, Trump concluded it was a “paper tiger” and assumed regime change would happen quickly, failing to plan seriously for a prolonged war, closed Strait of Hormuz, or depleted American air defenses.

Asked about Tucker Carlson’s warning that Trump might use a nuclear weapon, Swan says his reporting indicates no such plan. He describes Trump as trapped between a difficult deal—probably worse than the Obama agreement—and a ground invasion aimed at regime change, which Trump appears unwilling to attempt. The middle option now under discussion is a roughly 72-hour CENTCOM campaign more violent than the opening of the earlier war, with energy infrastructure among its targets. Swan warns that Iran, unlike the U.S. planning assumptions, can determine the campaign’s duration and use drones and asymmetric attacks against Gulf infrastructure, leaving the administration with a short operation that may not produce a defining result.

Swan says Trump no longer has a meaningful domestic agenda: his original executive-order and legislative push has run out of steam, and immigration enforcement became less theatrical after the Minnesota killings of Renee Good and Alex Pretti created bad optics. Stephen Miller remains more ideologically hardline than Trump, while Susie Wiles hears from business leaders; Trump himself is comfortable with H-1B visas and cheap labor. Swan instead expects investigations into self-dealing and self-enrichment, with the White House adopting a “war posture” to fight them. Trump is more interested in foreign-policy spectacle and legacy projects such as marble, gold, columns, and a White House ballroom than in domestic policy.

Swan says Trump, Stephen Miller, and JD Vance seriously discussed invoking the Insurrection Act during unrest in Minnesota, potentially over the governor’s opposition. He distinguishes this from George H.W. Bush’s 1992 use of the act, which came at a governor’s request. Swan also reports that conversations about suspending habeas corpus became serious enough that the White House staff secretary wrote a memo explaining why it would be dangerous. He believes these ideas remain a “loaded weapon” that could return under the right conditions. The scale of the Democratic victory makes election interference largely academic now, but Swan says every lever was on the table had the race been close.

Swan describes reporting that the U.S. government surveilled Alice Wong, a Singapore-based Nvidia customer associated with suspected chip smuggling, and discovered her close relationship with Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang. Officials disagree about whether Huang was naïve about Beijing or knowingly ignored warning signs; Trump was briefed but did not give Huang a defensive briefing. Swan says Huang has enormous influence over Trump on AI policy and advocates looser chip-export controls. He also argues that Trump has never truly been a China hawk: he has treated China mainly as a trade issue, dismissed Taiwan’s strategic importance, and moved into “pure dove mode” after China’s rare-earth and tariff response to the 2025 trade war. Swan doubts Trump will turn on Huang.

Swan says JD Vance has the clearest Republican path to 2028 but must rebuild the working-class coalition while serving an unpopular administration and a president who will punish any attempt to distance himself. He expects Democrats may pursue impeachment of Pete Hegseth or Robert F. Kennedy Jr., but is uncertain whether either will actually be impeached; he thinks Marco Rubio will probably finish Trump’s term. In the wrap, Sullivan says he was wrong to expect a Brazilian right-wing victory and underestimated the persistence of mainstream UK parties. The hosts flag Europe-China trade tensions, Trump’s possible APEC meeting with Xi and Putin, a New Yorker semiconductor article, Conan O’Brien’s bidet ad, and the latest season of The Diplomat.