Understanding Putin's Power

Key takeaways

Russia executed the largest drone assault in Ukraine, indicating an escalation in military efforts despite external pressure.
Putin's military strategy has shifted, recruiting fighters with financial incentives rather than through traditional conscription, which has changed the army's dynamics.
The effectiveness of Western sanctions on Russia's economy has been underwhelming, as Russia adapts and continues trading with countries that remain indifferent to sanctions.
The implications of the ongoing war could reverberate through Russian society for generations, affecting everything from demographics to economic structures.
The need for negotiations may change as Russia perceives itself as having an upper hand in the conflict, influenced by financial and military resilience.

Summary

The Current State of the Ukraine War

Over the weekend, Russia executed its largest drone assault yet in Ukraine, showcasing a relentless offensive that shows no signs of backing down, despite diplomatic efforts from President Trump. The discussion reveals how many underestimated Russia’s resilience by focusing solely on early setbacks during the invasion.

Putin's Turnaround Strategy

Anatoly Kurmanaev highlights Putin's ability to stabilize his military despite initial losses. The Russian strategy involved significant recruitment drives, offering financial incentives for service, which has drawn a new class of soldiers into the conflict, many motivated by economic necessity rather than patriotism.

Economic Factors Fueling the Conflict

The podcast emphasizes the economic dynamics that have fortified Russia's war efforts. Putin’s government has maintained a robust financial foundation by astutely managing Russia’s economic policies, conserving resources, and harnessing ongoing global trade relations, especially with countries like China and India.

Impact of Western Sanctions

The discussion covers the limited effectiveness of Western sanctions against Russia. Despite stringent measures, Russia continues to thrive economically by securing alternative markets for its oil and gas. The global financial context surrounding the sanctions is essential to understanding the ongoing conflict.

Future Implications of the War

Finally, the conversation shifts toward the long-term consequences of the war for Russia. The demographic and economic toll could lead to significant turmoil domestically, as returning soldiers face potential societal rejection and the state struggles to maintain economic stability post-conflict.

Show notes

Over the weekend, Russia bombarded Ukraine with the largest drone assault in the war thus far.

It’s the latest in a relentless Russian offensive that keeps escalating, despite President Trump’s efforts to negotiate peace.

Anatoly Kurmanaev, who covers Russia for The Times, discusses the economic war machine that’s driving Russia’s success on the battlefield, and making it so hard for anyone to get President Vladimir V. Putin to back down.

Guest: Anatoly Kurmanaev, a reporter for The New York Times, covering Russia and its transformation following the invasion of Ukraine.

Background reading:

Why Putin thinks Russia has the upper hand against Ukraine.
Russia wants ‘security guarantees’ too. Here’s what they look like.

For more information on today’s episode, visit nytimes.com/thedaily. Transcripts of each episode will be made available by the next workday.

Photo: Pool photo by Alexander Kazakov