The Iranians Who Want More War

Key takeaways

Iran is deeply divided internally, with a significant faction of hardliners advocating for revenge and confrontation despite a recent peace agreement with the US.
Public mourning in Iran is highly choreographed to showcase national unity, but beneath the surface, there are strong sentiments for conflict and rejection of diplomacy among many Iranians.
Internal divisions within Iran's leadership, particularly between pragmatic reformers and ideological hardliners, significantly influence Iran's foreign policy and stability, creating unpredictability in the region.
The absence or limited influence of the Supreme Leader's clear stance adds to the internal chaos, with factions vying for control and legitimacy.
The recent attack on US ships by hardliner factions suggests possible escalation driven by internal conflicts, which complicates efforts for diplomatic resolution.

Summary

Inside Iran's State-Managed Mourning and Public Sentiment

The podcast provides a vivid account of Iran's public mourning for Ayatollah Ali Homenayi, emphasizing the highly choreographed and staged public ceremonies. It highlights how the crowds' expressions of grief are intertwined with calls for revenge against the US and Israel, with banners, flags, and slogans emphasizing justice and retribution. Despite the official peace deal with the US, many Iranians express a desire for continued conflict, rejecting diplomacy, and calling for the death of US President Trump. The public demonstrations reveal deep divisions between those who favor hardline policies of confrontation and revenge and the small, but significant, faction of pragmatists seeking peace and stability.

Factional Divisions Within Iran's Leadership and the Future of Diplomacy

The episode explores the internal political rifts within Iran’s leadership, mainly between ultra-hardliners and pragmatic leaders within the conservative camp, including powerful Revolutionary Guards generals. The hardliners, led by figures like Sayyidi Jalili, maintain a stance of unwavering hostility towards the US and Israel, representing a minority of the population but a loyal base. Conversely, pragmatic leaders, including the current parliament speaker, advocate for diplomacy, economic reform, and leveraging military threats into negotiations. The absence of a clear Supreme Leader figurehead, due to health and political reasons, exacerbates internal disarray, with factions questioning each other's legitimacy and support for peace initiatives. The uncertain influence of the new Supreme Leader's son complicates the political landscape, leaving room for continued internal conflict and potential escalation, such as the recent attack on US ships.

The Internal Conflict and Its Impact on Iran’s Policy and Stability

The podcast discusses how internal infighting among Iran’s ruling elite threatens national stability and hampers coherent policy implementation. The division between the hardliners and pragmatists is not just about foreign policy but also reflects deeper struggles over Iran's identity and future direction. Hardliners are committed to ideological confrontation, while pragmatists recognize the need to restore economic stability through diplomacy and engagement with the West. This internal factional struggle influences Iran's external actions, like the attack on US ships, which appears to be driven by hardliner factions acting independently of official government policy. The episode emphasizes that these divisions make Iran’s leadership uncertain and fragile, influencing regional tensions and the prospects for peace.

Show notes

Fractures in Tehran are pitting a faction favoring negotiation with Washington against hard-liners who oppose making a deal with the United States.

Guest:

Abdi Latif Dahir, a Middle East correspondent for The New York Times, covering Lebanon and Syria.
Farnaz Fassihi, the United Nations bureau chief for The New York Times. She also covers Iran and how countries around the world deal with conflicts in the Middle East.

Background reading:

What a journey through wartime Iran revealed.
Divisions festered within Iran over talks with the United States.

Photo: Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

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