The Voters Who Flipped Congress

At the time of recording, Nate Cohn said Democrats had won 54 Senate seats, with Alaska and Mississippi still leaning Democratic; that would produce 56 seats, nearly all from states Donald Trump won by more than 10 points. Democrats held 237 House seats and could exceed 250, their largest majority since the end of their dominance in the South. They had also flipped governorships in Ohio, Iowa, Georgia, Texas, and Nevada, giving Democrats control of states containing a majority of the electoral vote and roughly three-quarters of Americans.

Cohn said the midterm electorate was unusually diverse: the Black share rose by at least three points in many Southern states, helping Democrats compete in South Carolina and Mississippi. In Georgia’s early vote, more young Black voters participated than young white voters, despite being a minority of young voters. Hispanic turnout also rose in Texas, where Hispanic voters backed Democrat James Talarico by more than 40 points. Cohn linked that shift to backlash against Trump’s immigration crackdown, including deportations and damage to businesses; majority-Hispanic counties in Southwest Kansas swung about 50 points toward Democrats.

Cohn argued that Trump had alienated constituencies that helped give him a popular-vote majority in 2024. His immigration policies particularly repelled Hispanic voters, while young white Republicans stayed home at unusually high rates. Democrats received more than 60 percent of young men, reversing the Republican advantage of more than 10 points among young men in the previous election. Cohn said some voters had expected Trump to deliver lower prices or a better economic situation and instead either switched to Democrats or declined to vote; the war in Iran was another possible source of disillusionment.

Cohn’s theory that high-profile progressive candidates were weaker than moderate Democrats became stronger as more votes were counted. He defined the group as candidates backed by activists who opposed the party establishment and centered campaigns on progressive priorities, not simply any Democrat who supported Medicare for All or opposed Israel. In Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed won by seven points even though the national environment implied a 13-point Democratic margin and House Democrats were on track for about 11 points. Angie Nixon nearly won Florida, but Cohn said Florida’s 13-point Trump margin made it the most Democratic state Democrats failed to win.

Republicans spent roughly twice as much as Democrats, including $100 million more in Ohio, $84 million more in Michigan, and $200 million more in Texas; Republicans reportedly spent $500 million in Texas and still lost by double digits. Cohn said money remains influential in shaping politicians and policy, but has less effect in a midterm dominated by engaged voters with settled views and strong feelings about the president. Advertising could raise concerns about candidates, but it could not persuade enough voters to support Republicans as a check on Trump. He questioned whether donors would keep spending heavily when Democrats now control much of government.

Cohn said Democratic withdrawal from Senate ballots in Nebraska, South Dakota, and Idaho to create Republican-independent contests did not produce a clear path forward; the independent candidates underperformed expectations, though Cohn could not prove Democratic candidates would have done better. In Alaska, he expected mail ballots from remote areas to expand Mary Peltola’s lead beyond the votes received by the second Dan Sullivan. He graded the final New York Times polls as essentially exact: Democrats led all seven Senate battlegrounds by an average of five points. Earlier polls underestimated Democrats because dissatisfied voters apparently made their decision late to vote Democratic as a check on Trump.

In the closing news item, Vice President J.D. Vance publicly broke with Trump by saying the Republican losses were caused by the war in Iran. In a social-media post, Vance wrote, “the reason we lost is the war,” adding, “agree or disagree, that’s at least honest.” The episode said Vance is viewed as a possible 2028 Republican presidential candidate and that distancing himself from the unpopular war may be an early effort to prevent it from becoming a liability.