El Niño Is Back. And Worse Than Ever.

Key takeaways

El Nino is a natural climate phenomenon originating in the tropical Pacific, characterized by unusually warm sea surface temperatures.
The current El Nino is expected to be the strongest on record, with potentially devastating global impacts.
Historically, severe El Nino events have led to famines, droughts, and societal upheaval, with millions of deaths in the 1800s.
Climate change is amplifying the effects of El Nino, making droughts, floods, and storms more extreme.
Scientists are uncertain whether climate change is increasing the frequency or physical intensity of El Nino events, but recent trends suggest they are becoming more powerful.
The ongoing super El Nino serves as a warning of future climate extremes and underscores the urgency of climate adaptation and mitigation efforts.

Summary

Understanding El Nino: The Climate Phenomenon

This section explains what El Nino is: a natural, yet chaotic, climate event originating in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Typically, the ocean waters in this region follow a predictable pattern, cooling slightly during the Northern Hemisphere summer. However, during an El Nino year, the sea surface temperatures remain higher than usual, sometimes even increasing, due to changes in wind patterns that normally disperse warm water. When the temperature gap exceeds about 0.5°C, it signals an El Nino, and a larger gap indicates a super El Nino. The episode describes how El Nino acts as a global re-organizer of climate, impacting weather patterns worldwide, including storm paths, pressure systems, and temperature distributions. The phenomenon's history can be traced back centuries, influencing major events like famines and societal shifts, even before it was scientifically understood.

El Nino’s Severity and Historical Impact

This section discusses the current El Nino's record-breaking strength, potentially the largest on record and possibly the most severe in hundreds of years. Scientists estimate that it could reach a three-degree temperature anomaly, far surpassing typical events. Historically, severe El Nino events in the 1800s caused widespread droughts, famine, and societal upheaval, killing millions. The 1877 El Nino, for example, coincided with a famine that resulted in approximately 50 million deaths. The discussion emphasizes how El Nino has historically affected agriculture, water availability, and human societies across the globe.

The Climate Change Connection and Future Outlook

This section explores the relationship between El Nino events and climate change. Scientists agree that climate change amplifies El Nino’s effects, making droughts more intense and rainfall more destructive. There is ongoing debate about whether climate change is also making El Nino events more frequent or physically intense, but evidence suggests recent El Ninos have been stronger than those in previous centuries. The conversation highlights that the current super El Nino is likely a preview of future conditions, with global temperatures expected to rise further in the coming years. The episode points out that the aftermath of this event will likely lead to the hottest years on record, stressing the importance of understanding and preparing for such extreme climate events.

Show notes

The global chaos agent known as El Niño is back, and this year it’s already on track to be, by far, the strongest and most severe on record, wreaking havoc on weather across the world.

Today, Chico Harlan, the global climate reporter for The New York Times, goes over El Niño’s history, its inner workings and its increasingly destructive fallout.

Guest: Chico Harlan, the global climate correspondent for The New York Times.

Background reading:

El Niño, the Pacific climate shift that comes around once or twice a decade, is back, warming tropical oceans and setting off consequences worldwide.
It’s expected to peak later this year but is already causing dry spells and crop failures on three continents.

Photo: Bay Ismoyo/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

For more information on today’s episode, visit nytimes.com/thedaily. Transcripts of each episode will be made available by the next workday.

For more information on today’s episode, visit nytimes.com/thedaily. Transcripts of each episode will be made available by the next workday.

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