Prof Robert Pape: Are We Entering The Eight Most Dangerous Weeks In Our Lives?

Host Steven Bartlett asks Professor Robert Pape what is happening in the world. Pape says the United States is entering an escalation trap involving three simultaneous dangers: the counting, certification, and transfer of power after the midterms; the Iran war; and Russia’s threatened escalation in Ukraine. He explains that midterms elect Congress halfway through a president’s four-year term. Republicans currently control both chambers, but Democratic control would create checks through subpoenas, impeachment, and possible removal of cabinet officials. Pape says more than 40 million Americans support using the military against Democratic protesters, while more than 60 million support force to prevent Trump from being president—roughly double 2024 levels.

Pape argues that the United States and Israel achieved tactical successes but strengthened Iran strategically, including Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz and roughly 20% of global oil. He compares Trump’s decisions to a gambler doubling down: attacks on leadership failed, a six-week air campaign failed to make Iran concede, and the blockade has lasted six months while gas prices, American lives, and political support become the “chips.” Pape says a proposed three-day campaign resembles “Instant Thunder,” the 1991 Iraq plan that lasted 43 days and killed an estimated 5,000–15,000 civilians. He warns that destroying Iran’s leadership could leave no clear negotiating partner.

Bartlett asks what happens if the leaked three-day plan fails. Pape says surviving Iranian forces could retaliate against airports, Gulf infrastructure, and U.S. personnel, as Iraq did after the 1991 campaign. He cites Houthi missile attacks on Terminals 3 and 4 at Riyadh airport, which killed more than a dozen people and wounded over 300, as an example of the escalation pattern he expects. Continued civilian deaths could also generate “inspired attacks”: violence carried out by individuals rather than directly ordered by a government. Pape applies that framework to a Dubai–Tel Aviv flight where the co-pilot allegedly attacked the pilot with a cockpit hatchet shortly before arrival.

Pape says Putin wants more than a Trump photo opportunity or a formal deal: he wants Trump to pressure Ukraine into surrendering territory. Russia has annexed four Ukrainian oblasts legally but does not control all of them; Pape says Putin may also seek the larger area he calls “Nova Russia.” After four years and at least 250,000 Russian deaths, Pape says Russia has gained only about 1% of Ukraine and remains far from those objectives. He predicts that if Trump cannot deliver Ukrainian territory, Putin may target power stations in Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Odesa, aiming to remove 90% of their electricity for one or two months.

Pape defines violent populism as political violence moving from the fringe into the mainstream, with large numbers of people prepared to act rather than isolated extremists. He calls the millions of Americans who support violence for or against Trump the “combustible material,” while an unpredictable event supplies the spark. He uses January 6 as an example: Trump first called supporters to Washington, then told them to march to the Capitol, and a later tweet saying Mike Pence had let them down preceded chants of “Hang Mike Pence.” Pape warns that clashes between federal agents and protesters during ballot counting could become a similar focal-point event.

Bartlett connects Pape’s scenario to Britain’s “Be Ready” campaign. The campaign advises households to keep three days of supplies, including three litres of water per person per day, non-perishable food, torches, radios, power banks, first-aid kits, and cash because ATMs may not work. Pape says governments are responding to the possibility of cyberattacks or infrastructure collapse linked to the Ukraine and Iran conflicts. He claims a July outage affecting power and water in Minnesota was most likely an Iranian cyberattack, based on a New York Times report quoting U.S. intelligence, and says officials may have discouraged further coverage. He adds that he has personally seen governments brief journalists on what not to discuss.

Pape says cyberattacks on Europe or the United States could produce public demands for retaliation, while domestic protests could intensify during the unresolved transfer of power. He identifies the Insurrection Act as the legal mechanism allowing a president to use the military, National Guard, or reserves against civilians inside the United States, overriding the normal Posse Comitatus restriction. Trump said in an October 1 Time interview that he would not rule out invoking it. Pape says U.S. Marines could enter Iran for localized operations after airstrikes, but he considers that path likely to create a “forever war,” expanding emergency powers and potentially continuing into a devastating 2027.

Bartlett asks whether support for Ukraine already amounts to World War Three. Pape distinguishes proxy wars—such as Cold War conflicts in Afghanistan, Africa, and Latin America—from a world war, which he defines as the largest powers directly attacking one another’s homelands and militaries. He says the danger would rise sharply if cyberattacks on Europe led European governments to retaliate directly against Moscow. He proposes three firebreaks: Congress should oppose further Iran escalation until the new Congress is seated unless Iran strikes first; governors and mayors should seek a two-month moratorium on federally armed agents in their cities; and Pakistan, Qatar, and India should demand that all states stop directly targeting civilians and civilian infrastructure.

Pape rejects stockpiling three days of water as the main public response, arguing that a prolonged outage or repeated attacks would quickly exhaust such supplies and create panic anyway. He tells listeners to email, text, and call political leaders to support the three firebreaks. Bartlett endorses Pape’s book, Our Own Worst Enemies, and says earlier conversations changed his understanding of escalation traps. Pape says social media can help by exposing consequences to decision-makers, claiming public discussion may have helped prevent a planned attack on Iran’s drone network. When Bartlett repeatedly asks whether the White House contacted him, Pape confirms that people in positions of power have contacted him but will not say whether he advises the current White House.