Did Apple's New CEO Fumble His Debut?

Key takeaways

Apple beat revenue and sales-growth expectations, but unprecedented memory costs and a weaker margin outlook mattered more to investors than the strong quarter.
Institutional investors are pressing Anthropic to launch its IPO around $1.5 trillion–$1.6 trillion rather than the roughly $2 trillion valuation previously floated.
Google found that Videostrong deliberately used certified Android TV hardware to preload malware, blocked its infrastructure, and banned the company from the certified-device program.
Binance attributed its $6.3 billion loss to a combination of fake LinkedIn recruiting and a malicious Homebrew advertisement that exposed wallet-management information.
Anthropic’s internal figures show Claude leading an increasing share of AI research, while Jack Clark now believes recursive self-improvement is more likely in 2027 than 2028.

Summary

Memory costs overshadow John Ternus’s first Apple earnings call

Apple reported fiscal-year-quarter revenue of $114.5 billion, ahead of expectations, and guided holiday-quarter sales growth of 7% to 10%, above Wall Street’s 6% forecast. But shares fell about 3% after hours after Apple forecast 45%–46% gross margins versus analysts’ 47% and warned that data-center demand was driving “unprecedented” memory pricing. The iPhone maker grew market share from 18% to 22% as global smartphone shipments fell 20%, though its foldable iPhone Duo faced delays and cracked-screen reports. Bloomberg criticized Ternus for not selling investors on the Duo, Apple’s AI-agent control over its devices, or its relatively low capital spending.

Investors push Anthropic toward a lower IPO valuation

Institutional investors reportedly told Anthropic and its advisers that the planned IPO should value the Claude maker at roughly $1.5 trillion to $1.6 trillion, below the approximately $2 trillion figure previously discussed. They cited the technology-stock sell-off, backlash against data centers, concern that AI spending may be overexposed, and uncertainty about when Amazon and Meta will produce AI profits. Anthropic has not finalized its valuation or share count, but plans to begin its roadshow as soon as the following week and target a debut in the first week before Thanksgiving. Investors expect CFO Krishna Rao to favor a conservative price that could produce a first-day jump.

Google bans Videostrong over infected Android TV boxes

Google took legal action against Videostrong, a certified Android TV-box manufacturer associated with the Mecool brand, after finding that it built a backdoor into devices and could sell access for malware distribution. Google blocked the domains and servers controlling the XCPE botnet, banned Videostrong and its subsidiaries from selling certified Android devices or software to certified vendors, and said the company exploited a testing gap by loading malicious code after first boot. Shutting down the command-and-control domains should sever access to at least 10 million compromised devices, although Google advised owners to consider alternatives.

Binance describes a $6.3 billion North Korean theft

Binance said North Korean hackers combined two employee-targeting campaigns to steal $6.3 billion. In one, a fake project director contacted a Binance engineer through LinkedIn, arranged interviews with a supposed HR representative and the CEO of a fictitious company, and supplied a malicious assignment. Separately, another engineer clicked an internet advertisement for a tampered version of the Homebrew software package rather than using the company’s normal channels. Although Binance detected and removed that download, the attackers learned which employees managed wallets; together, the two compromises enabled them to take over wallets and drain funds.

Anthropic’s own data makes recursive self-improvement look closer

Anthropic’s IPO filing says it may “imminently meet” its definition of recursive self-improvement, while warning that it might not recognize a major acceleration in development until afterward. The company says no model has crossed the threshold and promises to keep humans involved in R&D, but an internal review of 15,000 tasks found Claude leading 26% of work on future Claude models in August, up from 1% in March and 0% a year earlier. Anthropic co-founder Jack Clark said the company’s models rapidly became capable enough for engineers to outsource coding, moving his estimate for RSI from 2028 to 2027.

Show notes

Apple beat estimates in John Ternus’s first earnings call, but memory costs loomed. Investors told Anthropic to price its IPO near $1.5T. Google banned a TV box maker for preloading malware. Binance detailed its $6.3B hack. Anthropic said RSI might be imminent.

Apple reports Q4 revenue up 12% YoY to $114.48B, above $113.39B est., China revenue up 21% to $17.5B, below $18.9B est., in John Ternus’ first earnings report (Business Wire)

Apple guided Q1 sales up 7–10% YoY, above the 6% Wall Street expected, but shares slipped ~3% after-hours on a 45–46% margin forecast and Ternus calling memory pricing “unprecedented” (FT)

Opinion: Ternus’s tight-lipped first earnings call missed a chance to talk up the iPhone Duo, Apple’s AI-agent moat, and capex at just 6.5% of Meta’s (Bloomberg)

Sources: institutional investors told Anthropic that its IPO valuation should be ~$1.5T to $1.6T, below the $2T range, citing factors like a tech stock selloff (WSJ)

Google severs ties with and bans Android TV box maker Videostrong after finding it intentionally preloaded malware to open a backdoor to control the XCPE botnet (9to5Google)

Binance says North Korean hackers stole $6.3B through a months-long scheme with fake LinkedIn job interviews and an ad campaign to deliver malicious software (Fortune)

S-1: Anthropic says it may “imminently meet” its RSI threshold and may not identify “a significant acceleration” in its development until after it has occurred (TechCrunch)

Anthropic’s internal data shows Claude went from leading 1% of its AI R&D work in March to 26% by August; co-founder Jack Clark now thinks RSI arrives in 2027, not 2028 (WSJ)

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