How much worse was that storm because of climate change?

Key takeaways

Attribution science helps quantify how much climate change has increased the severity or likelihood of specific weather events.
Advances in climate science now enable scientists to analyze individual weather events and attribute—at least in part—causal links to human-caused climate change.
This science is critical for informing policy, guiding adaptation efforts, and holding polluters accountable through legal channels.
Legal cases, both domestically and internationally, are increasingly using attribution science to seek redress and enforce climate responsibility.
Understanding the human impact on weather extremes can motivate societal and policy responses to mitigate future risks and damages.

Summary

Understanding Attribution Science

This section introduces attribution science as a subfield of climate science that quantifies the influence of climate change on specific weather events. Dr. Joyce Kimutai explains how advances in methods and science over the past two decades now allow researchers to analyze individual weather events—such as floods or hurricanes—and assess how much climate change has contributed to their severity or likelihood. The process involves comparing current events to historical and modeled climate data from the pre-industrial era to understand how emissions from industrialization have altered weather patterns.

The Importance of Attribution Science for Society

Dr. Kimutai emphasizes that attribution science is highly socially relevant because it directly relates to everyday impacts—such as health, food security, and safety—and informs public understanding and policy. It helps clarify the extent to which climate change affects specific events, thereby reinforcing the need for mitigation and adaptation strategies. The science provides concrete numbers to demonstrate climate change’s role, which is crucial for targeted action and accountability.

Legal and Policy Implications of Attribution Science

This section explores how the ability to attribute weather events to climate change influences policy, legal accountability, and justice. Maxine Burkett discusses the potential for attribution science to facilitate lawsuits against major emitters, including companies and governments, by establishing liability for damages caused by climate-related events. She highlights ongoing cases like Honolulu’s climate litigation against fossil fuel companies, which leverage attribution science to seek compensation and motivate stricter regulations. The discussion underscores how scientific advances could reshape legal frameworks around climate responsibility.

Show notes

We’ve been hearing for years that climate change makes weather more extreme, and extreme weather more frequent. But what’s been more difficult to measure is exactly how climate change influences a particular weather event. For example, how much more intense was Hurricane Lala because of climate change? How much more deadly were India’s heat waves this summer? A growing field called attribution science is trying to answer questions like these.

Flora chats with climate scientist Joyce Kimutai about the field and why it's so important. Then, we hear from climate law expert Maxine Burkett about how attribution science could be used in policy, and in the courtroom, to hold emitters responsible.

Guests:

Dr. Joyce Kimutai is a climate scientist specializing in attribution science. She works for the World Weather Attribution Consortium at Imperial College London and is the principal climate scientist for the Kenya Meteorological Services.

Maxine Burkett is a professor of climate, environment, and society at Stanford University in California.

Transcript will be available after the show airs on sciencefriday.com.

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