Pending Sales Just Fell Below 2008 Levels

Pending home sales just hit their lowest level on record since the NAR started tracking them in 2001—and they fell in all 50 of the country's biggest metros. Winter hasn’t even begun yet, and we’re already seeing the massive effects of high mortgage rates, low affordability, and overall economic pessimism. And with inventory rising, it raises the question: how do we avoid housing-crash territory?

I made four key predictions a few months ago: transaction volume would fall, new listings would drop, inventory would rise, and home prices would flip negative (nominally). The dominoes are lined up, and the first three have already fallen—so what happens to home prices? Those betting on a housing crash are missing one key variable, and it’s the one thing that could keep us out of crash-style price cuts. 

So I’m going through each data point to give you a clear look at why pending sales just hit the lowest level since record-keeping began, why inventory is rising while seller numbers aren't, and why home prices will begin to fall, but not to the levels you think.

In This Episode We Cover

What’s causing the dramatic lack of demand in the housing market (and why it may not get better)

Will our rising inventory eventually lead to a price crash?

Why sellers aren’t going to be forced to sell their homes at rock-bottom prices

The two factors that could cause mortgage rates to fall (or rise even more)

Why I’m still analyzing deals even as price drops don’t look like they’re stopping

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

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Sign Up for the Investor Brief Newsletter

Find an Investor-Friendly Agent in Your Area

Dave's BiggerPockets Profile

On the Market 372 - New Recession Indicator Shows Americans Worse Off Than We Thought

NAR: Pending Home Sales Decreased 7.3% in September

Grab the Book, Recession-Proof Real Estate Investing

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