AMD vs. Intel Data Center Market Share in 2026 — Plus Lattice Semiconductor Is Quietly Back at Record Revenues · Chip Stock Investor Podcast summary

Key takeaways

AMD is gaining momentum in the data center CPU market, potentially overtaking Intel by 2026 or 2027, driven by better use of manufacturing capacity and market demand.
Intel's stock valuation at over 100x forward P/E indicates high expectations for a turnaround, but substantial improvements are still necessary.
Lattice Semiconductor is experiencing significant growth, with record revenues projected and strategic acquisitions adding to its future prospects.
AMD's embedded FPGA business remains profitable, providing a reliable revenue stream even amid slower growth.
Upcoming products like the Vera CPU could reshape competitive dynamics in the CPU industry, making continued innovation crucial.

Summary

Intel vs. AMD in the Data Center Market

This section discusses the shifting landscape of the data center CPU market, with AMD gaining market share from Intel over the last year. The primary driver behind AMD's success is its effective use of TSMC's chip manufacturing capacity, especially in a period of CPU shortages where supply outstripped demand for Intel's own fabs. AMD's revenue is expected to continue growing, potentially surpassing Intel's in the data center and AI segments by late 2026 or 2027. The segment also emphasizes that while Intel's client segment remains profitable, AMD poses a significant threat to Intel's market share in this area.

Market Valuations and Growth Expectations

The episode analyzes the valuation metrics of Intel and AMD, highlighting that Intel's forward P/E ratio of 104x suggests high expectations for improvements and turnaround efforts, though much still needs to be achieved. In contrast, AMD's more reasonable 48x forward P/E reflects its more stable growth trajectory and momentum in data center markets. Despite recent stock price trends, the focus is on the fundamentals and future potential, with AMD viewed as the cleaner, more reliable investment at this stage.

Lattice Semiconductor's Growth and Strategic Moves

Lattice Semiconductor is experiencing a resurgence, with quarterly revenue increasing by 42% and the possibility of record revenues by Q2 2026. The company's acquisition of AMI software is projected to add approximately $1 billion annually in revenue by the end of the year. Lattice's strong performance is attributed to its strategic focus on FPGA markets and software. The episode highlights Lattice's financial momentum and strategic acquisitions as key factors fueling its growth.

AMD's Embedded FPGA Segment and Future Outlook

This section covers AMD's embedded FPGA segment, inheriting the Xilinx business, which remains profitable despite slow growth. The segment benefits from the acquisition of Xilinx, allowing AMD to have a profitable cushion and diversified revenue streams across various markets such as automotive, healthcare, and aerospace. While growth is modest, the segment's profitability and potential for future expansion continue to support AMD's broader strategy.

Future Developments: The Vera CPU and Market Speculations

The podcast discusses upcoming developments like the Vera CPU scheduled for release in 2026. This new processor is seen as a significant future product that could influence the competitive landscape. The hosts speculate on possible new entrants into the CPU market and the importance of continued innovation to maintain market relevance and growth.

Show notes

Intel stock is up big over the last year. On the stock price, CSI was wrong — and they are saying so directly.

On the business analysis, they are standing firm.

AMD is steadily taking data center CPU market share from Intel. The driver is availability — both companies rely on TSMC for their most advanced chiplets, but AMD has used that availability more effectively in a CPU shortage environment where demand is outpacing supply. After AMD's most recent earnings, the trajectory is clear: if things continue, AMD could pass Intel in data center and AI revenue as early as late 2026 or sometime in 2027.

Intel's client segment — the portion of the business keeping the lights on — continues to face market share pressure from AMD. The turnaround story is real and the early innings are genuinely encouraging. But Intel at 104x forward earnings needs everything to go right, and a lot still needs to go right. AMD at 48x, with cleaner data center momentum and a more consistent growth trajectory, remains the cleaner pick — even after being wrong on Intel's stock price.

This episode also covers two important supporting stories. Lattice Semiconductor is quietly back — up 42% in its most recent quarter, with record revenues possible as early as Q2 2026, and an AMI software acquisition adding roughly $1 billion in annualized revenue by year end. And AMD's embedded FPGA segment, inherited from the Xilinx acquisition, remains a highly profitable cushion even through its current growth trough.

The close leaves listeners with one more thing to watch: the Vera CPU, coming later in 2026.

What we cover:

— Why CSI was wrong on Intel's stock price — and why the business analysis still holds

— AMD vs. Intel data center CPU market share — the trajectory and what drives it

— The CPU shortage and AMD's TSMC availability advantage

— Intel client segment — profitable, but losing ground quarter by quarter

— Intel at 104x forward P/E vs. AMD at 48x — what each multiple actually implies

— Lattice Semiconductor: +42% quarterly, record revenues in sight for Q2 2026

— Lattice AMI acquisition — $1B annualized revenue run rate by year end

— AMD Embedded (Xilinx): profitable through the trough, modest growth returning

— Intel Altera FPGA — now 51% private equity, no longer in the income statement

— The Vera CPU — a teaser worth watching as 2026 develops

Sponsored by fiscal.ai — 25% off any paid plan through May 14 only. Use our link: fiscal.ai/csi

Disclosure: Nick and Kasey hold positions in AMD. They do not currently hold Intel. This content is for general information only and is not individual investment advice. All investing involves risk.

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AMD vs. Intel Data Center Market Share in 2026 — Plus Lattice Semiconductor Is Quietly Back at Record Revenues