a16z Podcast: Capitalizing on an Autonomous Vehicle Future

Key takeaways

The current state of autonomy is complex, with varying opinions on its imminent arrival or potential stagnation.
The evolution of autonomous vehicles may parallel the development of mobile technology, characterized by incremental innovations leading to transformational changes.
Achieving true autonomy involves navigating multiple levels of complexity and ensuring safety and regulatory compliance.
The autonomous vehicle ecosystem features a variety of players, encouraging specialization and collaboration reminiscent of the mobile industry.
The future of autonomy is intimately tied to capitalism and regulation, with potential implications for wealth distribution and national competitiveness.

Summary

The State of Autonomy in 2019

The podcast dives into the current landscape of autonomous vehicles, highlighting the contrasting views about how close or far we are from widespread autonomy. Guests Peter Ludwig and Qasar Younis discuss how defining autonomy is critical, including a recap of the SAE levels of autonomy. They emphasize that the conversation around autonomous vehicles is often clouded by hype and polarizing opinions, referencing the cyclical nature of technology's progress.

The Mobile Analogy

A significant portion of the discussion focuses on drawing parallels between the evolution of mobile technology and the development of autonomous vehicles. The guests reflect on where mobile technology was in the mid-2000s and how it eventually reached a tipping point. They suggest that autonomy may similarly experience incremental innovations leading to significant changes over the next decade. The conversation posits that, much like the early mobile devices seen as toys, the early iterations of autonomous systems may initially be underestimated.

The Challenges of Autonomy Development

Key challenges in the development of autonomous systems are explored, especially regarding the levels of autonomy. Breakdowns of SAE's classification highlight the complexities of achieving true autonomy. The guests note that while some systems may seem advanced, most still require human oversight in a capacity that falls short of complete automation. They also discuss societal and ethical considerations surrounding autonomy, emphasizing the importance of safety and regulatory frameworks.

The Ecosystem of Players

The podcast delves into the diverse ecosystem surrounding autonomous vehicles, which includes manufacturers, component suppliers, and software developers. The guests acknowledge that while there are prominent players in the market, a horizontal model is emerging, similar to mobile, where specialized firms provide essential components while larger brands integrate these pieces into their offerings. This ecosystem perspective suggests a landscape where competition can drive innovation, but also necessitates collaboration among companies.

Capitalism and The Future of Autonomy

A philosophical discussion on capitalism’s role in shaping the future of autonomy is woven throughout the episode. Ludwig and Younis discuss how autonomy may lead to increased affordability and safety while posing questions about wealth concentration and national interests. They note how differing regulatory environments can affect innovation and competition, comparing the futuristic potential of autonomy solutions with historical shifts in the automotive and tech industries.

Show notes

with Peter Ludwig, Qasar Younis (@qasar), and Sonal Chokshi (@smc90)

When people talk about autonomous vehicles, we hear everything from "we're much closer than you think" to "we're much further than you think". So where are we, really, in the widespread reality of autonomous vehicles today? It depends, of course, on how you define autonomy -- which is where a handy recap and update of the SAE (Society of Automotive Engineers) levels of autonomy comes in. But still, given everything out there from self-driving shuttles to Teslas, it's really hard to tell just where we are and where the nuances of, say, Level 2-plus vs. Level 3 might come in.

This episode of the a16z Podcast takes a quick pulse on where we are in the state of autonomy in 2019 when it comes to autonomous cars, shuttles, robots -- basically any "autonomous" and/or "self-driving" vehicle out there -- as well as the analogy of mobile for understanding the space: where it works, where it breaks down. But did even the mobile industry itself really have a clear iPhone "moment"? When did mobile devices that seemed so limited -- or seemed like just "toys" -- suddenly (or not so suddenly) go to an apps layer that we use every single day? How do we build "the rails" and "the trains" at the same time in this case?

And perhaps most importantly, where will the spoils of this new wave of innovation go -- to Silicon Valley or Detroit? Or outside the U.S.? Who are the players? How do regulatory -- and quite frankly, nationalistic -- concerns come into play here? And finally, how does one balance the desire to embrace innovation in an open and fast, yet still very thoughtful and safe way?

The answers, according to Applied Intuition co-founder and CEO Qasar Younis and CTO Peter Ludwig (in conversation with Sonal Chokshi), have to do with commodities and capitalism, with science and science fiction, with simulation and software as infrastructure, and more... And really, how we define autonomy now, and in the future.

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Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.

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