How to Get Forecasting Right

Do you know the difference between accurate forecasting and effective forecasting? Technology forecaster Paul Saffo says accurate forecasting is nearly impossible to do. But if you aim for effective forecasting, he notes, then at least you’re considering the full range of reasonable possibilities for the future, rather than jumping to one conclusion and preparing only for that outcome. In this episode, he shares his six rules for effective forecasting—from visualizing future uncertainty to discerning patterns in past data—and explains why it’s important to be your own worst critic of your forecasts.