Fareed Zakaria on the Midterms and What Comes Next

Scott Galloway opens by asking Fareed Zakaria what makes this Election Day different. Zakaria says right-wing populism has become a global backlash against 30 years of technological, economic, and cultural acceleration, visible in movements from Trump to Australia's Pauline Hanson and Marine Le Pen-style politics. But Brexit has left Britain worse off, and Trump's tariffs, China policy, and manufacturing promises have not delivered. He sees a possible “first significant breach” if voters conclude that nostalgic right-wing politics cannot provide answers, though the election's results will determine whether the tide has peaked.

Zakaria says independents now make up 45% of the electorate, and unlike the highly polarized partisan bases, this large group is increasingly willing to change its mind. He argues Trump helped create that movement by attracting disaffected Democrats, then drove many away through under-delivery on inflation, tariffs, the Iran war, and aggressive ICE raids. Hispanic support has reportedly fallen nearly 20 points from Trump's 2024 level; surges among young, Black, and Asian voters also appear to have receded. Only 38 House seats are competitive, but gerrymandering could backfire if a broad Democratic wave flips districts designed to be safely Republican.

Asked to compare the United States with other countries, Zakaria describes global right-wing populism as a reaction to rapid globalization, technology, and multiculturalism. Its central offer is nostalgia: Trump's word “again” promises a return to a comforting past, even though societies cannot simply stop the clock. Brazil's Lula provides one partial precedent, having shifted 10 million votes between rounds and defeated a right-wing opponent. Zakaria says the crucial question is whether nostalgia can govern effectively. Corruption and executive abuse have become politically potent only when connected to groceries, affordability, and ICE agents' treatment of people.

Zakaria calls the Iran war the most unpopular American war in history because it was unpopular from its first day rather than becoming unpopular after years of fighting. He says voters do not understand why Trump launched it after an earlier bombing campaign had already set back Iran's nuclear program, and the apparent goal of regime change failed within days. Unlike distant foreign-policy disputes, the war has a direct, visible connection to inflation. Zakaria hopes it also exposes the excessive power of the presidency: Congress was intended to make the laws, while the president was supposed to execute them, not act like a king.

Galloway asks whether the United States can restore the alliances that made it an enduring power. Zakaria rejects the right-wing idea that Western greatness is primarily strength and imperial might, noting that Genghis Khan and the Russian Empire had those qualities too. He identifies the Enlightenment, equal rights, individual dignity, and reflection on slavery and imperialism as the West's distinctive contributions. After 1945, the United States funded reconstruction for defeated Germany and Japan, opened its markets, and created a mutually beneficial order; the Marshall Plan alone involved roughly $200 billion in today's terms. Zakaria says abandoning that model has damaged American credibility.

Zakaria argues that two Trump elections have made allies doubt whether a future Democratic administration could permanently restore American reliability. Canada is diversifying trade with the European Union, China, and India because its integrated North American economy can now be used to pressure it. India is slowing its planned move away from Russian arms and bought French fighter planes instead of relying only on the United States. Germany and Japan once effectively subcontracted national security to Washington, but American “stupidity and recklessness” have undermined that arrangement. Trust can be partly rebuilt, Zakaria says, but the United States cannot simply return to the old system.

Galloway asks what a future Democratic administration could do beyond speeches. Zakaria recommends locking in a long-term North American trade arrangement with Canada, developing technological and economic partnerships with India, and honoring commitments such as the AUKUS submarine deal with Australia. He cites Apple's rapid shift as an example: three years earlier India made no iPhones, while today every new iPhone sold in America is made there and India produces 25% of U.S.-sold smartphones. He agrees that Ukraine should be the immediate demonstration of American leadership, because Russia's attempted annexation violates the post-1945 rule against conquering territory by force.

Zakaria endorses Galloway's idea that Democrats pass major resolutions on Ukraine, healthcare, and tariffs to define the world they want, even if Trump vetoes them. He says Trump has created roughly 7,000 tariff rates through exceptions and exemptions; Democrats could replace that confusion with a regularized 5% to 7% import tariff while offering price relief. The party faces a messaging problem because 15 to 20 candidates may compete to replace an historically unpopular president, producing cacophony. Hakeem Jeffries and Chuck Schumer could create coherence through four or five “totemic” bills. Zakaria warns that merely being anti-Trump will not create a governing majority.

Galloway compares Elon Musk's reported throttling of Starlink in Ukraine to a defense contractor disabling guidance systems during a war and calls Musk a traitor to the West. Zakaria agrees that wealth and engineering brilliance have led Americans to treat Musk as an authority on politics, although he says Musk misunderstands history, nationalism, and government budgets. Musk's proposed $2 trillion DOGE cut ignored that most federal spending is benefits, not administrative workers. In India, his attempt to pressure the government into approving Starlink by appealing over Mukesh Ambani's head backfired, strengthening Indian support for local provider Jio and raising fears that an Indian military dependent on Musk's satellites could be vulnerable in a conflict with Pakistan.

Asked how the moment affects him as an immigrant, Zakaria says it is heartbreaking because he came to America in 1982 believing in its openness, special global role, and promise that “all men are created equal.” He is especially distressed by the casual dismantling of USAID and by openly racist language toward immigrants, Hispanics, Indians, and Muslims. America invented modern foreign aid and used its wealth to reduce poverty and illness, he says, even though aid has sometimes been abused. He still believes this is a passing phase and has never considered leaving: “This is my country,” and, in the worst case, “I'm going down with the ship.”