24. Is the U.S. Sleeping on Threats from Russia and China?

Key takeaways

John Sullivan argues that both major U.S. political parties are not adequately addressing the threats posed by Russia and China.
The meeting between Biden and Putin in Geneva may have reassured Putin about his plans for Ukraine, ultimately resulting in the invasion.
Sullivan believes current U.S. foreign policy lacks a substantive strategy, risking underestimating the severity of international threats.
The future U.S. leadership, especially under Trump, could dramatically change the stance on Ukraine and global military alliances.

Summary

Understanding the Current Geopolitical Landscape

In this episode, Stephen Dubner converses with John J. Sullivan, a former U.S. ambassador to Russia and State Department official, about the threats posed by Russia and China. Sullivan emphasizes that both Republicans and Democrats are failing to adequately confront these serious challenges, leading to miscalculations in U.S. foreign policy. Sullivan reflects on President Biden's and President Trump's relations with Russia, underscoring the urgency of a unified and robust policy response.

The Biden-Putin Meeting: A Missed Opportunity?

Sullivan recounts his experiences during the critical Biden-Putin meeting in Geneva in June 2021. He describes the atmosphere and dynamics of the encounter, noting Biden's intention to stabilize relations despite a buildup of Russian troops threatening Ukraine. Sullivan suggests that Putin's demeanor indicated a premeditated decision to invade Ukraine, pointing to a significant missed opportunity for the U.S. to apply greater pressure on Russia.

Reflections on U.S. Foreign Policy

Sullivan offers a critique of U.S. foreign policy, expressing concern that American leaders have not presented a serious vision or strategy for dealing with Russia and wider threats. He compares current global tensions to historical precursors to major conflicts, warning that a significant escalation could catch the U.S. off guard.

Looking Ahead: Implications of Future Leadership

The conversation turns to the potential ramifications of a second Trump term on U.S.-Russia relations and international dynamics. Sullivan warns that a retreat from supporting Ukraine could embolden Russia, and he calls for a more strategic approach to handling varying global threats, particularly those emanating from the Asia-Pacific region.

Show notes

John J. Sullivan, a former State Department official and U.S. ambassador, says yes: “Our politicians aren’t leading — Republicans or Democrats.” He gives a firsthand account of a fateful Biden-Putin encounter, talks about his new book Midnight in Moscow, and predicts what a second Trump term means for Russia, Ukraine, China — and the U.S.

SOURCES:
- John Sullivan, former U.S. Deputy Secretary of State and former U.S. Ambassador to Russia.

RESOURCES:
- Midnight in Moscow: A Memoir from the Front Lines of Russia's War Against the West,by John Sullivan (2024).
- "The ‘Deathonomics’ Powering Russia’s War Machine," by Georgi Kantchev and Matthew Luxmoore (The Wall Street Journal, 2024).
- War, by Bob Woodward (2024).
- "On the Record: The U.S. Administration’s Actions on Russia," by Alina Polyakova and Filippos Letsas (Brookings, 2019).
- "Why Economic Sanctions Still Do Not Work," by Robert A. Pape (International Security, 1998).

EXTRAS:
- "The Suddenly Diplomatic Rahm Emanuel," by Freakonomics Radio (2023).

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