#2574 - Francis Foster & Konstantin Kisin

Joe opens by asking Francis Foster and Konstantin Kisin what they know about the political situation in Brazil, mentioning claims that Flávio Bolsonaro, Jair Bolsonaro’s son and an election candidate, had his passport taken and may have fled to the United States. None of them knows the details. They discuss an allegation that a former defense attorney for Lula, later appointed to Brazil’s Supreme Court, extended voting hours by two hours and thereby helped Lula win, but they repeatedly acknowledge that this is based on things seen online rather than verified knowledge. The conversation broadens into a warning about fabricated stories on X and Facebook. Joe says AI-generated images of people being arrested, bot accounts, and foreign actors can create the impression that a false narrative is popular. Kisin suggests that platforms could use “digital border enforcement” to show where commenters are posting from, because people often adopt opinions by observing what they believe everyone else thinks. They argue that monetization makes outrageous and hostile posts especially profitable: negative engagement is easier to generate than thoughtful agreement. Joe says he no longer wants to book propagandists or people who deliberately distort facts, talk over others, or treat loyalty to a party as more important than truth. Kisin praises the goal of having left-wing, libertarian, and conservative guests on Trigonometry rather than building a show around partisan outrage.

Joe uses Bernie Sanders as an example of a politician whose repeated arguments may have become like a stale comedy bit: words said out of habit rather than conviction. He focuses on climate change, arguing that the subject is far more complex than popular slogans suggest. He recalls the 1970s fear of an imminent ice age, mentions a claim that recent warming may have delayed such an ice age, and says temperature has varied throughout Earth’s history. He also points to global greening, arguing that increased carbon dioxide has coincided with more vegetation and leaf coverage. Kisin distinguishes climate modeling from the kind of science people imagine when they think of gravity experiments. Models depend on assumptions and approximations, and he says Britain produces about 1% of global carbon emissions, so reducing British emissions to zero would have little effect while potentially damaging its economy. He argues that high electricity prices have made British industrial production difficult and have contributed to pensioners being unable to heat their homes. The pair compare heat and cold deaths in Europe, citing an estimated 61,672 heat-related deaths in one European summer against more than 48,000 firearm deaths in the United States that year, and an estimated annual average of 364,000 cold-related deaths across 30 European countries from 1991–2020. They conclude that policy incentives often reflect profit and political influence more than environmental concern, citing oil companies’ historical opposition to nuclear power and Britain’s tax advantages for electric cars.

Joe argues that the contemporary left is often more “loony” because it is largely secular and lacks the moral scaffolding that religion provides. He describes the orderly behavior of people leaving a Christian church—everyone letting others merge out of the parking lot—as evidence, in his view, that shared religious rules can create humility and community. He contrasts this with his imagined response at a political rally, where ideological opponents might be much less charitable. He and Kisin suggest that people have a psychological need for religion after thousands of years of religious practice, and that when formal religion disappears, political causes such as climate activism or progressive identity can take its place. They say opponents of these causes may then be treated like heretics or infidels. Kisin, who recently interviewed Jonathan Haidt, says religion can be understood as a social technology for cohesion and forgiveness even by nonbelievers. He particularly emphasizes gratitude: regularly acknowledging how fortunate one is can change one’s experience of life and make political fanaticism less likely. A Pew-style statistic pulled up during the conversation says 78% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents identify with a religion, compared with roughly 60% of Democrats, while about 39% of Democrats are religiously unaffiliated. They also criticize attempts to reshape Christianity around current political language, joking about “non-binary” depictions of God while noting that biblical texts contain many older moral problems that would seem more urgent to address.

The discussion turns to marijuana policy in Texas. Joe argues that attempts to ban cannabis are connected to falling alcohol sales, which he says are being affected not only by changing health attitudes but also by GLP-1 drugs such as Ozempic. He says legal cannabis can be heavily taxed, as Colorado did, and that the resulting revenue can fund schools and other public services. By comparison, a night of drinking with friends can easily cost hundreds of dollars, while a $15–$20 joint may last an evening; particularly strong California products can be much more potent, including joints dusted with kief or containing THC crystals. Kisin says younger people also have less money to spend on alcohol, and both men describe alcohol as having a poor balance between pleasure and harm. Kisin recounts taking eight months off drinking and noticing steadier energy, better mornings, and improved well-being. Joe says alcohol causes dehydration and recommends electrolytes, amino acids, and glutathione, leading to a joke that the advice sounds like an alcohol-company representative telling customers to take five supplements with every drink. Joe also defends vitamin supplementation after recalling a doctor with a “potbelly” telling him a balanced diet provides everything necessary. The exchange then moves to healthcare: Kisin says British doctors face less medical-litigation pressure than American doctors, while Joe and Kisin compare the two countries’ education and service cultures.

Kisin and Joe argue that dense cities can produce anxiety, aggression, and mental strain. Kisin cites Desmond Morris’s book The Human Zoo, which compares the psychological effects of cities on humans with the effects of zoos on animals, including higher interpersonal violence, mental illness, depression, and lower reproductive rates. Joe says he has progressively moved farther from Los Angeles and felt more relaxed as he gained access to acreage, wildlife, birds, hawks, mountain lions, bobcats, and deer. Kisin says he now avoids London except for work because even a short shopping trip can feel overwhelming. They compare urban stimulation with social media’s constant dopamine loop. Joe recalls a friend who could maintain his Manhattan life only by retreating to quieter Fire Island, where the lack of cars and slower pace provided a necessary contrast. Both say New York can be exciting for a visit—Joe recalls 24-hour pool halls, diners, and steak dinners at 4 a.m.—but becomes a different calculation once someone is married or raising children. Kisin recalls taking students from a rough, concrete-heavy part of East London into the countryside for a week and seeing them become calmer and less confrontational. They also emphasize darkness and stars: seeing the Milky Way can put human concerns into perspective, whereas city light pollution creates a narrow, artificial world. Nature, family, and quiet are presented as corrective experiences for people whose attention is constantly captured by online conflict.

Joe and Kisin criticize political messaging that reduces opponents to their most extreme examples: the left becomes trans rights in sports, communism, and open borders, while the right becomes Patriot Front, religious fundamentalism, and white nationalism. They say online clips and slogans distort people’s perceptions, while long conversations can reveal that someone portrayed as monstrous is often reasonable. They also discuss political attack ads, including ads portraying candidates as sympathetic to pedophiles or as threats to children, and agree that such rhetoric would sound absurd in an ordinary conversation. Joe explains why he voted Republican by pointing to the Biden administration, the border, and what he describes as a lack of presidential control. He argues that illegal migration can affect congressional representation because the census counts people, not only citizens, and says migrants were disproportionately placed in swing states. Kisin brings in a Venezuelan Uber driver who said most Venezuelans come to work legally, but that criminals such as members of the Tren de Aragua gang damage the reputation of ordinary immigrants. They ask whether allowing criminals across an open border is an unintended consequence or a calculated political strategy, and mention Andrew Yang’s claim that both parties may sometimes preserve problems because those problems provide campaign issues. Kisin says the left is right to worry about concentrated power in corporations and government, but argues that many people in those systems are driven by bonuses, elections, and profit rather than morality. He compares a media platform to a family-owned restaurant: its creators have a responsibility not to add “lead and mercury” to the product merely to attract more customers.

The hosts become increasingly concerned about a possible renewed American attack on Iran after the midterm elections. Joe says the Iran conflict has faded from mainstream discussion even though shipping through the Strait of Hormuz reportedly requires military protection. Kisin says Britain’s defense minister advised citizens to stockpile three days of supplies, which he compares jokingly to “two weeks to flatten the curve.” They discuss geography as a force in international politics, noting that Russia’s population and infrastructure are concentrated in its western region and that Ukraine’s strategic importance is tied to minerals and location. Kisin summarizes military analyst Robert Pape’s “escalation trap” argument: Iran has gained leverage by threatening a crucial energy artery and by strengthening its position against Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Israel. The conflict has also affected fuel prices and supplies; Kisin says the United Kingdom has only about two months of diesel supply. Joe compares the situation with the Iraq wars, where the quick victory of Operation Desert Storm created false confidence before the prolonged post-2001 occupation. Both question the assumption that removing a leader will cause a population to welcome democracy, and Kisin notes that regime change has never been achieved solely through airstrikes. They conclude that Iran’s mountainous terrain makes a ground invasion extraordinarily difficult, while drones and cyberattacks have changed the military balance. The stated goal of preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon may be understandable, but they cannot see how the current conflict achieves it. In fact, they argue that an attacked Iran may become more determined to obtain a weapon so the attack cannot happen again. Kisin favors regional balancing and diplomacy; Joe suggests Trump could claim a major deal and de-escalate rather than continue the war.

The conversation shifts to why young people are attracted to revolutionary politics. Joe says “burn it all down” rhetoric rarely includes a plan for what replaces the existing system, while Kisin distinguishes the American War of Independence from revolutions such as those in Russia and France, where an existing regime was overthrown and replaced. Kisin says communism is historically disastrous, but also argues that people who feel locked out of housing, wealth, and opportunity have a genuine grievance. He and Joe connect this frustration to the reaction to Luigi Mangione’s killing of a UnitedHealthcare executive and to the popularity of Joker: people who feel the social game no longer rewards them may eventually reject its rules. They then consider AI and universal basic or high income. Joe imagines AI replacing driving, shipping, office, and other jobs, while creating enough wealth that people might receive a guaranteed income. Kisin warns that money alone cannot replace usefulness or identity. He tells a story about a struggling student named Chris who was assigned to sharpen every pencil in the classroom; Chris completed the task proudly and asked whether he could return the next day to do more because he felt useful. Joe argues that future education should teach people to pursue interests, develop internal motivation, tolerate delayed gratification, and find meaning even when survival no longer requires a conventional job. They agree that people may initially waste the freedom on games or partying, but may eventually seek family, creativity, activity, and achievement. Joe cites Siberian subsistence communities from Werner Herzog’s Happy People as an example of people finding contentment through practical work. They finish by emphasizing failure as necessary training, comparing podcasting, comedy, and jiu-jitsu: repeated mistakes build the competence and humility needed for high-level performance. Kisin says shared stories such as The Odyssey still connect people across cultures because struggle, family, and overcoming hardship remain human constants.