Susan Glasser: POTUS’s Desperate Fight to Regain Leverage
· Summarized
Key takeaways
- Trump’s election defeat was a major repudiation, but it does not end his presidency or eliminate the danger of his remaining two years in office.
- Trump’s post-election conduct suggests he is consolidating the MAGA base rather than addressing the electoral warning, especially by elevating Stephen Miller and defending Pete Hegseth.
- Massie’s Hegseth impeachment effort could attract Republican support from defeated or retiring lawmakers, and a Senate trial may be possible even without enough votes to convict.
- The Iran war has weakened Trump’s negotiating position because Vance’s dissent and the election exposed his desire for an exit while Iran can increase its demands.
- Kushner’s call for a new European security architecture repeats a Kremlin framing that treats Russia’s demand for control over neighboring states as a legitimate security arrangement.
- Republicans appear ready to retain John Thune because the alternatives are more aggressively Trumpist, while Democrats are already fighting internally despite holding unusually large congressional majorities.
Summary
The election felt like a delayed shock, not a clean break
Tim Miller and Susan Glasser begin by processing the election result, which they describe as an unusually sweeping rejection of Donald Trump’s agenda. Both say the scale took time to register: Miller was in Austin and needed time before he could even identify his feelings, while Glasser woke early the next morning in an unexpectedly good mood. They stress that the result is a victory but not a full page turn: Trump remains president for two years, and Democrats’ eventual congressional power will not automatically produce everything voters may expect. Glasser says the country is in a “liminal space” between repudiating Trump and still having to live under his presidency.
Trump’s brief turn toward moderation quickly collapsed
Glasser says Trump’s appointment of Stephen Miller, after removing Susie Wiles, at least ended the fantasy that he might become a bipartisan conciliator. Yet commentators immediately revived that fantasy after Trump’s 60 Minutes interview, interpreting isolated remarks as evidence that he might soften deportation policy or support broad healthcare. Miller points to Trump’s subsequent press conference with Dana White, where he entertained an MMA matchup with Joe Biden and attacked reporters Vaughn Hilliard and Kaitlan Collins, as evidence that Trump had briefly seemed disoriented after the election before returning to his familiar persona. Glasser wants future reporting on the rage and denial inside Trump’s White House as his “delusionary bubble” burst.
The C-SPAN call exposed Trump’s preferred political habitat
Trump called into C-SPAN’s Washington Journal and said he watches the program’s call-ins, prompting Miller and Glasser to focus on an unidentified woman’s giggling in the background. They speculate, without confirming it, that the voice may have belonged to Natalie Harp. Glasser jokes that the scene evoked an older man shouting at a television in a bar, while Miller describes the presidency as a “make-a-wish” production that has abandoned ideas of dignity and the Oval Office. Trump also returned to claims about stolen elections, including a confused argument about Alaska’s Dan Sullivan and ranked-choice voting. For Glasser, the call illustrated Trump as an old man trying to escape his political bubble through television rather than confronting reality.
MAGA’s attempted comeback ignores the electoral warning from Texas
Glasser argues that Trump is not responding rationally to the election’s causes; instead, he is trying to rally the defeated MAGA base by elevating Stephen Miller and defending Pete Hegseth. She says keeping Texas competitive is essential for Republicans because its size means Democrats could win the presidency without carrying most of the other battleground states if Texas were genuinely in play. Along the southern border, every congressional district is now represented by a Democrat, with some districts swinging 40 or 50 points, including the Bobby Ocasio/Monica De La Cruz area Miller mentions. Glasser doubts that Miller’s hard-line politics will restore Republican competitiveness, though it may consolidate Trump’s core supporters.
The Hegseth impeachment is framed as a Republican vote of no confidence
Miller and Glasser examine Thomas Massie’s eight articles of impeachment against Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. The charges include an unauthorized war in Iran, failure to protect civilians including in the bombing of an Iranian elementary school, extrajudicial killings in the Caribbean, the kidnapping of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, unlawful conflict in Yemen, and retaliation against Mark Kelly and others over protected speech. Hegseth argues that impeachment tells Iran, cartels, and other adversaries that America punishes leaders for lawful military operations; Miller notes that Hegseth also misrepresented Trump’s prior impeachments. Glasser says impeachment is political rather than purely legal and compares the proceeding to a parliamentary vote of no confidence.
Republicans may have the votes to force a Senate trial
Glasser believes the House may have enough Republican votes to impeach Hegseth, because several Republicans lost reelection amid Trump’s unpopular war and others are retiring and no longer depend on Trump’s approval. She says only about three Republicans would need to join all Democrats. In the Senate, departing Republican Tom Tillis has said that holding Hegseth accountable is his remaining goal, and other outgoing senators may support a trial. Conviction would require two-thirds, which Glasser considers unrealistic, but only 51 votes are needed to establish trial rules, potentially allowing evidence, witnesses, and televised hearings. They say such a trial could clarify how much Trump, Hegseth, and military advisers knew about the war and Caribbean strikes.
Vance’s dissent has become a loyalty test for Trump’s successor
The hosts say Vice President J.D. Vance’s written repudiation of Trump’s signature Iran policy is extraordinary: he has rejected the war while remaining the administration’s presumed number two. Hegseth repeatedly echoes Trump’s claim that the operation was necessary and would be repeated, increasing pressure on Vance to endorse it publicly. Glasser says Vance is trapped because a vice president normally cannot run for president while disowning the administration’s record, yet Trump’s incoherence makes loyalty difficult to perform convincingly. The Iran war also appears to have weakened Vance’s political prospects, since Trump is using agreement with the conflict as a new test for anyone who wants to succeed him.
The election weakened Trump’s leverage with Iran
Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in Paris that Iran wants a deal but is making “absurd” demands, suggesting negotiations remain far from resolution. Glasser argues that Vance’s dissent publicly confirmed what the election already showed: Trump wants a way out of a conflict he launched without a clear endgame. Iran has seen that weakness and can raise its demands, making any agreement harder for Trump to accept politically. Glasser doubts Trump can recreate Barack Obama’s earlier Iran deal; any replacement would likely be worse, while a frozen conflict with limited active fighting may persist through the rest of his term. Trump’s appointment of Stephen Miller is interpreted as an attempt to regain leverage as his authority declines.
Kushner’s Ukraine plan repeats a Kremlin argument about Europe
Jared Kushner, although not a government employee, is helping lead negotiations over Russia and Ukraine. His statement called for a broader European “security architecture,” but European officials objected that such an architecture already exists and that Russia repeatedly violates the treaties supporting it. Glasser says Russia signed agreements recognizing Ukraine’s borders and independence, then ignored them when it became strong enough. She calls Trump’s claim that Ukraine or the West caused Russia’s invasion a “blood libel” and says Trump and Kushner are seeking peace mainly by pressuring Ukraine to accept Russian demands. Kushner’s language echoes proposals Russia issued before its full-scale invasion that would have given Moscow control over its neighbors’ security arrangements. Glasser calls him a “useful idiot” for amplifying that framework.
Republicans kept Thune because the alternatives are worse
Miller criticizes John Thune as an exceptionally weak Senate leader who served only two years, produced few legislative accomplishments, failed to protect Republican senators from primary challenges, and presided over a substantial transfer of congressional power to the executive. Yet Republicans appear ready to retain him as minority leader because the alternatives are more explicitly Trumpist and could make the Senate even less functional. Glasser says Republican senators seem to blame Trump rather than Thune for their losses, but she also emphasizes that they had agency and could have resisted. Tim Scott’s decision to prioritize staying in Trump’s good graces while leading the Senate campaign committee is cited as an example of the party choosing loyalty over accountability.
Democrats’ internal fights collide with inflated expectations
Miller is puzzled that Democratic activists and progressive media quickly turned from celebrating a 56-seat Senate majority and roughly 260 House seats to demanding fights against Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries. Glasser says Democratic infighting is historically normal, unlike the more hierarchical Republican model, and expects both leaders to remain in place. The real danger, she argues, is that the enlarged majorities create exaggerated expectations about Congress’s ability to defy Trump. Miller says accountability and high expectations are appropriate, especially around detention and ICE, but immediate mockery of Democratic leaders may not help. They close by joking that a major construction project might distract Trump while Jared Kushner, Elon Musk, and Hegseth face scrutiny.
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Show notes
Trump’s loyalist foot soldiers in Congress are still sticking by him but the power of the presidency is ebbing away from him. He’s lost not only the leverage to broker a peace between Russia and Ukraine, the Iranians also saw the results of the midterms—which significantly undercuts Trump’s ability to negotiate a deal favorable to the US. Plus: Vance’s political future is evaporating before our eyes, Thune has been the weakest majority leader in decades, and Trump was clearly living in a delusionary bubble before the midterms (with the help of his giggling assistant). Susan Glasser joins Tim Miller.
Susan Glasser joins Tim Miller.
show notes:
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