Bill Kristol and JVL: Trump Could Be More Dangerous Post-Election

Tim Miller opens by saying it is midterm Election Eve and jokes that he will avoid turning the whole episode over to the “megalomania” surrounding Haley Stevens, saving that story for Jonathan V. Last. Bill Kristol explains his out-of-season Mardi Gras shirt as a tribute to James Carville’s speech in The War Room, where Carville says that, beyond love for family, the most important thing one can give is one’s labor. Bill also recounts seeing Widespread Panic, whose set began with “We’re Not Gonna Take It” and ended with “Sympathy for the Devil,” which he treats as a possible message about the election.

Tim argues that the Iran war creates unprecedented uncertainty before a midterm: Republicans are campaigning without explaining whether Trump will negotiate, withdraw, escalate, or use overwhelming force after Election Day. He compares it with 2006, when Bush’s Iraq strategy was contested but his commitment to the war was not in doubt. Bill adds that the 1990 Gulf War was also openly presented to Congress and the public. Both say Trump has offered contradictory signals—talk of negotiations alongside threats to “decimate” Iran—while Republican candidates have avoided clarifying their positions. Tim says the war has destabilized the world and created economic pain at home, yet remains undercovered as a campaign issue.

The hosts play a pre-stroke clip from Senator Chris Murphy, who says congressional briefings covered a possible plan to restart military operations against Iran. Murphy calls the plan “insane,” warning that it would cause devastating escalation, prolong the war, and destroy the United States’ commitment to the rule of law. He also says the war was never authorized by Congress and lacks appropriated funding. Bill argues that Democrats, despite not controlling Congress for two more months, should use an election victory’s momentum and moral authority to resist the plan, including persuading Republicans to defect. Tim expresses sympathy for Murphy, describing him as a sincere public servant who engaged directly with gun-rights advocates.

Tim and Bill discuss Tucker Carlson’s claim that Trump could be days away from a nuclear strike on Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain enrichment site, allegedly because conventional weapons could not penetrate its granite tunnels. They call Carlson a fabulist and assume he is exaggerating, while noting that administration opponents sometimes leak information to him. Bill says Israel itself has a strong interest in preserving the nuclear taboo because it is a small country with nuclear weapons and would be endangered by an exchange. Still, neither host thinks the possibility is literally zero. Tim points to Trump’s fascination with historical power figures, threats to wipe out Iran, and reported interest in dramatic uses of force.

Bill says there would be no conceivable military justification for breaking the roughly 80-year taboo on nuclear use merely to destroy facilities buried in a mountain, since conventional weapons could seal entrances or otherwise disable them. He argues that officers should not obey such an order absent an actual emergency and predicts mass resignations, impeachment, and a possible conviction. Tim agrees that the worst-case scenario should be taken seriously even if doing so sounds alarmist, comparing it with warnings before January 6. They conclude that the administration is at least considering serious escalation and that Trump’s desire for a historic legacy could make the next two years unusually dangerous.

Tim identifies Alaska as the clearest current election-subversion threat, citing a Justice Department lawsuit over the ballot and discussion of refusing to seat Democrat Mary Peltola if she wins. Bill says lawyers have successfully stopped many recent Trump-aligned efforts in district and appellate courts, while Alaska’s Republican governor and Republican Senator Dan Sullivan have indicated they would respect the returns. He remains worried about close counts and attempts in the days after voting. Tim notes that the Senate, likely controlled by Democrats, would decide whether to seat Peltola. Both acknowledge that Republicans have tilted the playing field through redistricting and reduced ballot access, even though the most extreme post-election maneuvers have not yet succeeded.

Tim reads a New York Times/Siena poll showing Democrats ahead in Michigan, Texas, Maine, Ohio, Kansas, Alaska, and Iowa. The results would produce a 54-seat Democratic Senate, although Alaska and Iowa are inside the margin of error. Nate Cohn says the poll heavily weighted Republicans to account for a possible hidden Trump vote; without that adjustment, the Democratic leads would be larger in Michigan, Kansas, and Alaska. Bill says the weighting is defensible because polling missed Trump in 2020 and 2024, but may have overcorrected. Both note that early-vote data—especially Democratic, Latino, Black, and younger turnout—generally points in the same direction.

Tim highlights favorability numbers suggesting Susan Collins remains stronger than Republican candidates such as Mike Rogers, while Troy Jackson is the only Democratic Senate candidate in the poll with clearly underwater favorability. He says Adam Hamilton in Kansas and Rob Sand in Iowa have unusually large crossover advantages—13 and 12 points—because they present themselves as pragmatic officials focused on state interests rather than attacking the left. Bill agrees that Hamilton’s pastoral background and Sand’s record as state auditor help, but adds that weak Republican nominees such as Roger Marshall and Ken Paxton also matter. Trump’s role in selecting candidates means candidate quality is itself part of the Trump-era Republican Party.

Tim and Bill recommend staying busy rather than obsessively refreshing results, but identify early races to watch. Kentucky’s Sixth District and Indiana’s Fifth close at 6 p.m.; Democrats winning either would signal strength in heavily white, Trump-friendly districts and support the outlook for Iowa and Ohio. At 7 p.m., they will watch South Carolina’s First, Virginia’s Fifth, Florida’s Seventh, and Florida’s Twenty-Seventh. Florida’s rapid reporting and detailed early-vote data could reveal whether Republicans are producing the election-day turnout advantage on which their strategy depends. Bill adds that Virginia’s First would be an important test, while Virginia’s Fifth flipping would indicate a very large Democratic wave.

Bill says Democrats should win both chambers and believes 54 or 55 Senate seats is more analytically likely than 51 or 52. He can construct paths to 57 or 58 by adding close races in Mississippi and Nebraska, while also expecting Democrat Amy Acton to win Ohio’s governorship. Tim predicts roughly 240 Democratic House seats, but remains nervous about Iowa, Alaska, and Kansas—the three races Democrats need to avoid a 50-50 or vulnerable majority. He notes that Democrats are trying to flip seats in states Trump won by double digits, something that has happened only five times since 1990. Bill and Tim agree Democrats may win 12 or more of the 14 largest governorships.

Tim says he has bet journalist Jonathan Cohn that Abdul El-Sayed will win Michigan by more than six points, with a Zingerman’s food package at stake. He argues that El-Sayed is dominating Kamala Harris voters and independents in the Times poll, while the election is fundamentally about Iran, prices, and Trump’s indifference to voters’ problems—not the Haley Stevens drama. Tim expects El-Sayed to be “schlonged” Rogers and says the Republican campaign’s anti-Muslim attacks will fail. Bill agrees that the race appears to be slipping away from Rogers, and Tim closes the Kristol segment by warning listeners not to be disappointed if Democrats win only 52 Senate seats, which would still be an extraordinary result.

JVL joins Tim to discuss Haley Stevens’s weekend reversal. Stevens had said she would appear at a unity event with El-Sayed, issued demands that he denounce statements by people associated with him, and was still telling allies she supported him. After a dinner where her fiancé Jason Turkish reportedly berated her for backing El-Sayed, Stevens texted allies at 1:30 a.m., then recorded a video from her car endorsing Mike Rogers. At a CNN interview, she said she wanted more “kindness” from Democrats and questioned why El-Sayed discussed Iran. JVL says this is not a principled policy decision or a calculated power move; it looks like a personal grievance and an erratic breakdown.

Tim says Stevens’s decision makes more sense as resentment over Democratic criticism, combined with sensitivity about antisemitism and her new relationship, than as a response to policy developments. He notes that Rogers has run an explicitly bigoted campaign while El-Sayed has behaved inclusively, so Stevens’s new information should have pointed the other way. Tim and JVL also argue that Israel-Palestine politics has become dangerously central to American political identities. JVL says a bipartisan reaction against deep American involvement may be forming, while Tim says importing the conflict through super PAC spending and factionalism is unhealthy. They criticize AIPAC and Benjamin Netanyahu’s government for worsening the political situation and conclude that Stevens’s reversal will not meaningfully change the Michigan result.