Tariffs didn’t bring manufacturing jobs back to the US
· Summarized
Key takeaways
- Global trade remains intricate and chaotic, with policies like tariffs often rerouting shipments rather than restoring manufacturing jobs.
- Agentic AI has a transformative impact on supply chain management and software development, enabling faster decision-making and more secure, scalable operations.
- Trade policies are often ineffective in achieving their political goals but increase the importance of sophisticated software tools to adapt.
- Strategic choke points like the Strait of Hormuz are becoming potential military flashpoints, emphasizing the need for resilient, AI-managed supply chains.
- Federated, privacy-respecting data platforms are essential for international cooperation, allowing stakeholders to share vital information securely.
- The future of global trade depends on creating systems that enhance economic and security resilience, reducing the risk of conflict as dependencies are better understood and managed.
Summary
Global Trade Chaos and Supply Chain Management
This section explores the ongoing chaos in global trade and the critical role of supply chain management software, specifically Altana. CEO Evan Smith discusses how recent geopolitical shifts, tariffs, and policy changes have made international trade more complex and unpredictable. Despite efforts like tariffs intended to bring manufacturing jobs back to the U.S., actual outcomes have shown limited success, with supply chains rerouting through third-party countries rather than relocating manufacturing. The discussion emphasizes that trade remains vital for growth and security, and software solutions like Altana aim to enhance transparency, security, and resilience in these increasingly complicated networks.
The Impact of Agentic AI on Trade and Software Development
This section delves into how agentic AI is transforming the way companies like Altana develop and manage software. Evan Smith explains the adoption of AI-powered workflows that accelerate decision-making, product development, and operational efficiency. The conversation highlights the shift from traditional roles to more integrated, convergent functions where designers, engineers, and product managers collaboratively build AI-driven systems. The focus is on improving the velocity, quality, and security of at-scale software deployment, especially in sensitive sectors like trade and government compliance.
Trade Policies, Tariffs, and Geopolitical Strategies
The episode discusses recent trade policy changes, including tariffs and structural shifts in supply chains driven by geopolitical tensions, especially between the U.S. and its partners like China, Canada, and Mexico. Evan Smith explains how tariffs often do not achieve their intended political or economic objectives but instead lead to rerouting of shipments and increased complexity. He discusses the legal and strategic aspects of tariffs, their application, and the impact on industries such as autonomous systems and critical minerals. The conversation underscores that payoffs from these policies are mixed, and companies like Altana develop tools to navigate and optimize amid these turbulent conditions.
Military and Geopolitical Risks to Supply Chains and Trade Security
This section emphasizes the increasing intersection of trade management and military risks. Evan Smith highlights how strategic choke points like the Strait of Hormuz are not just commercial arteries but also potential flashpoints for conflict. He discusses how authoritarian regimes could weaponize resource control, turning economic tools into military leverage. The episode touches on the necessity of resilient, secure supply chain networks to prevent escalation and ensure stability, advocating for the use of AI to simulate and manage these risks.
Data Federation, Security, and Collaborative Supply Chain Platforms
Here, the focus is on the architectural challenges of creating interconnected global trade systems that respect sovereignty and data privacy. Evan Smith describes how Altana's federated data platform enables secure, permissioned sharing of supply chain information among diverse actors like governments, companies, and regulators. The platform balances transparency and confidentiality, fostering cooperation while protecting sensitive data. The discussion illustrates how software can serve as a market-creating, trust-building element in navigating complex geopolitical landscapes.
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Show notes
Evan Smith, cofounder and CEO of Altana, was last on the show in early 2025 to talk about how Trump’s first few waves of tariffs were starting to affect global trade. It was a very alarming and also very illuminating chat; Evan and I got into the existential weeds of international relations and economics almost immediately.
A year and a half later, and everything is somehow even more chaotic than it was the last time Evan and I talked — and that’s true about both trade and also the world of running a software company. Agentic AI, whack-a-mole tariff policy, war in Iran — we jumped right back into weeds yet again.
Read the full interview transcript The Verge.
Links:
How Trump’s tariff chaos is already changing global trade | Decoder
Skydio CEO Adam Bry on not drawing red lines for drone use | Decoder
Trump imposes new global tariffs, drawing protests from trading partners | Reuters
Greer: USMCA Talks Could Stretch Into Next Year | Wall Street Journal
Trump hits Canada with new 50% tariffs | Associated Press
Iran weaponized the Strait of Hormuz. Now neighbors are going around it | CNN
The Iran war is testing Southeast Asia’s faith in the US | Politico
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Credits:
Decoder is a production of The Verge and part of the Vox Media Podcast Network.
Decoder’s producers are Kate Cox and Nick Statt. This episode was edited by Kabir Chopra. Our editorial director is Kevin McShane.
The Decoder music is by Breakmaster Cylinder.
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