20VC: The Best AI Companies Have Unique Data Acquisition Strategies | Will Simile Kill Kalshi, Polymarkets and NASDAQ | How to Sign Fortune 500 Companies As Customers in Weeks with Joon Sung Park, Simile · The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch summary

Key takeaways

Creating unique, high-quality data is crucial for building defensible AI companies and simulations.
Simile aims to develop comprehensive models of human behavior capable of answering complex 'what if' scenarios, with ambitions to cost billions per session in the future.
Rapid deal-closing with large Fortune 500 companies demonstrates the market’s acute pain points and readiness for innovative simulation solutions.
Building trust, leadership, and team balance are essential for transitioning from academic research to a successful AI company.
The cost and complexity of simulations will decrease over time, enabling scenarios with immense value for enterprises and governments.
Advanced simulations could potentially make stock markets uninvestable or revolutionize how we understand societal dynamics, love, and policy in the future.
The primary challenge is moving from proof-of-concept models to reliable, production-ready simulation platforms.
Simulations have the potential to broaden human understanding, inclusion, and decision-making, fundamentally reshaping society.

Summary

Innovative Data Strategies for AI Companies

June Sung Park emphasizes that leading AI companies are building defensible data acquisition strategies. He highlights the importance of collecting unique, representative behavioral data, including transaction and observational data, beyond web-scraped information to improve prediction accuracy and alignment with human biases. This approach helps create more realistic simulations of human behavior, which are central to Simile's business model.

The Future of Simulation and Human Behavior Modeling

Park discusses how large language models can now extract realistic human behaviors by analyzing vast data on sentiment and web activities. He shares his vision of creating detailed simulations of entire societies or ecosystems, capable of answering 'what if' questions at scale. The challenge lies in validating these models and bridging the gap between proof of concept and operational deployment, with ambitions to run highly valuable simulations costing millions of dollars.

Simuley's Unique Approach and Market Strategy

Simile builds generalized models of people to simulate behaviors at individual, subgroup, and societal levels. Their focus is on understanding why people act as they do, enabling applications in market prediction, decision-making, and policy testing. They initially serve enterprise clients like CVS, appreciating rapid deal closure within three months, driven by customer pain points for faster, data-backed insights. Park highlights the potential to eventually serve consumers, creating a broad and scalable impact.

Debate on Financial Markets and Societal Assumptions in AI

Park predicts that advanced simulations could revolutionize areas like stock markets, possibly making them uninvestable due to perfect predictive capabilities. He challenges assumptions about market efficiency and societal representation, advocating for a future where society’s perspectives are captured through detailed simulations. Conceptually, this could impact love, governance, and other human aspects, with interests in creating these comprehensive societal 'layers' of simulation.

Team Building and Leadership Lessons from Research

Park stresses the importance of balancing expertise, ownership, and the ability to reinvent oneself within a team. He values team members who have shown resilience and adaptability, and advocates for hiring individuals aligned with the company's core values. His own journey reflects deep collaboration, trust, and shared vision—crucial elements for maintaining a high-performing team over time.

Transition from Academia to Industry and Fundraising Insights

Park shares lessons from moving from academic research to startup leadership, emphasizing the importance of impact-driven motivation. He discusses the rapid pace of fundraising, with Simile securing $300 million in recent months—highlighting how market dynamics and investor confidence can accelerate growth. He notes that VCs can be valuable mentors and partners, as long as there is trust and aligned visions.

Economics of Simulation and Cost Considerations

The cost of running complex simulations varies based on complexity and scale, but high-value simulations could potentially generate returns of hundreds of millions of dollars. Park envisions a future where single simulation sessions could cost tens of millions but offer immense value, especially for large enterprises or governments. Costs are decreasing as efficiencies improve, enabling broader applications.

What Cannot Be Simulated Today but Might in Three Years

While technical hurdles are diminishing, the key challenge lies in bridging simulation proof-of-concept with reliable, scalable tools. Park believes that as models improve, their efficacy and trustworthiness will increase, leading to breakthroughs in long-term multi-agent simulation and decision-making analyses—possibly enabling a 'time-machine' level of foresight.

Speculations on Future Impact and Human Society

Park envisions a future where every individual might have a digital twin, allowing for highly personalized simulations—potentially transforming dating, education, and governance. He believes that human diversity, shared memories, and trust are core to meaningful relationships and will continue to shape how simulations are integrated into human life.

Show notes

Joon Sung Park is the Founder and CEO of Simile, the AI simulation company building foundation models of human behaviour; allowing companies to test how real people may think, decide and act before making a decision in the real world. Simile has now raised $300 million in total, including a $200 million Series B announced last week at a $2 billion valuation, led by Greenoaks and Index Ventures.

AGENDA:

00:00 We Will Pay $100M for a Single Query on Some Models

10:00 Why Stock Markets May Not Exist in 5 Years Time

15:00 The Best Companies All Have Unique Data Acquisition Strategies

19:00 The Best AI Companies Have Clear and Fast Reward Functions

24:00 How We Sign Fortune 500 Companies for $10M Contracts in Weeks

32:00 Does Similie Kill Kalshi and Polymarket? Prediction vs Changing the Future

42:00 Inside Similie's $300M Raise; What Every Founder Needs to Know

20VC: The Best AI Companies Have Unique Data Acquisition Strategies | Will Simile Kill Kalshi, Polymarkets and NASDAQ | How to Sign Fortune 500 Companies As Customers in Weeks with Joon Sung Park, Simile