Will Prediction Markets Whiff on Midterms? & DC Votes on a Foie Gras Ban

Neil and Toby said the economy is the dominant issue in the midterms because voters care less about aggregate indicators than whether daily life feels affordable. Nate Silver’s polling average showed 25% approving and 70% disapproving of President Trump’s handling of inflation; even 53% of Republicans were dissatisfied. Gas rose to $4.17 per gallon from $3.04 a year earlier, while diesel reached $6.29 from $3.68. Jobs and GDP remained relatively strong, but inflation outpaced wages for six months, mortgage rates moved back above 7%, and asset owners benefited more than paycheck-dependent households.

Data centers have become an election issue from local zoning fights to state races: 49 related ballot measures were scheduled across 13 states, two-thirds of Americans opposed new data centers, and more than half viewed AI as bad for society. Texas is especially important because roughly one-quarter of projected U.S. capacity through 2030—13.3 gigawatts of announced projects—is there. Democratic challenger Regina Hinojosa promised an immediate moratorium, threatening that buildout if she defeats Greg Abbott. The hosts also noted that 220 AI-generated or enhanced political ads appeared recently, while 10% of adults use chatbots for election information.

Kalshi and Polymarket expanded to roughly 16 times as many midterm markets as in 2024, with Polymarket offering about 4,300 markets and media partnerships making prediction data mainstream. They currently gave Democrats about a 76% chance to take the Senate and more than 90% to take the House, despite major misses in Brazil, Serbia, and Wisconsin. Toby said thin trading can distort small races: his Massachusetts district had only $7,500 wagered versus $32 million in Michigan’s Senate race. The hosts also questioned whether markets merely repackage polls, though a study of more than one million markets found their probabilities were generally well calibrated.

Washington, D.C., voters considered Initiative 86, which would prohibit restaurants from selling foie gras. The measure gathered more than 45,000 signatures, surpassing every previous D.C. initiative, and 80% of residents supported it in a 2023 poll. The dish is made from ducks’ or geese’s enlarged livers after force-feeding through a tube two or three times daily. Chef Bart Hutchins argued a ban unfairly targets a product supplied by only two U.S. producers and could lead to bans on octopus or pork; Neil countered that foie gras is a luxury consumed by roughly 1% of people. They recalled Chicago’s former ban, during which chefs created underground “duckies.”

Virginia installed Intelligent Speed Assistance devices in about 100 cars to target drivers repeatedly caught traveling over 100 mph. The GPS-based system limits engine power rather than braking, and drivers receive two 30-second overrides per trip, allowing up to five miles per hour above the limit. The hosts cited data showing drivers at least 30 mph over the limit account for under 1% of speeding violations but about 30% of fatal crashes; New York vehicles with 30 or more camera violations were 50 times more likely to be in a severe or fatal crash. GPS drift can incorrectly impose a lower limit, so the technology still needs refinement.

Apple reported quarterly revenue of $114 billion, up 12%, but shares fell as much as 4.5% after the company forecast holiday sales growth of only 7%–10%, down from 12%. Finance executives cited supply constraints and higher costs linked partly to the AI boom, while customers buying older iPhones before price increases could weaken demand. Services growth slowed to 9.8%, wearables declined 7.9%, and Apple forecast 45%–46% gross margins versus analysts’ hopes of 47%–50%. The Information’s Martin Peers described CEO John Ternus’s earnings-call remarks as marketing “palaver”: abundant words with little new information.

A Learjet 60 traveling from Austin to the Bahamas crashed in Palm Beach on Sunday, killing all nine people aboard. The aircraft descended at more than 32,000 feet per minute; the pilot told air traffic control, “We’re going to crash into the ground and we’re out of time.” Investigators are focusing on weather after the crew encountered turbulence and icing while seeking higher altitude. Co-pilot Natalia Filguerios, 20, reportedly texted her boyfriend that she had turbulence and ice. The hosts emphasized that the investigation remained preliminary and had not established a definitive cause.

British Army veteran Carl Bushby returned to his childhood town of Hull after completing a journey begun in 1998 to walk around the world. Now 57, he covered more than 31,000 miles across four continents, including swims across the English Channel and into the Caspian Sea. Weather, imprisonment in Panama, being held at gunpoint in Mexico, Russian visa problems, the financial crisis, and COVID delayed him for nearly 30 years. He pushed a 100-pound cart and walked about 18 miles daily, yet gained weight crossing America because of the diet. Bushby mainly wanted to reunite with his mother, son, and 12-year-old granddaughter.