When it comes to the job market, love the one you're with

Key takeaways

Productivity is growing because output is strong while aggregate hours worked are slowing, but workers are not yet receiving the full benefit through real wage growth.
Despite a small September increase in quits, economists recommend staying in an existing job unless another position is already secured because hiring remains unusually weak.
Holiday retailers delayed orders amid tariff and geopolitical uncertainty, then created a warehouse squeeze by placing large orders simultaneously.
Pet-food companies are investing heavily in testing, premium products and age-specific supplements as consumers continue spending on pets despite broader price pressure.
MLB owners want a salary cap and payroll floor, while players oppose limiting the free-agent market because even late-blooming stars can eventually command enormous contracts.

Summary

Strong output and fewer hours point to rising productivity

Marketplace explains that productivity combines how much the economy produces, approximated by GDP, with how many hours people work. Third-quarter GDP rose at its fastest pace of the year, while weak hiring and slow labor-force growth meant aggregate hours worked were slowing. Economists Courtney Schubert, Matthew Martin and Nicole Servi said that combination indicates strong productivity, which can support higher real incomes and living standards. But wages have not kept up with inflation, and low layoffs and limited job-switching may prevent workers from moving into better-paid, better-matched jobs where productivity could be even higher.

September quits rose, but economists still say stay put

The September JOLTS report found job openings, hires and separations little changed; quits rose slightly to 3.4 million. Angela Hanks said more quitting normally signals worker confidence and mobility, but one month does not outweigh weak job and wage growth. Heidi Shierholz advised people with jobs to hold on, noting the hiring rate is around its 2012–13 level, when the labor market was still emerging from the Great Recession. Healthcare remains central to job growth, yet its hiring is down about 13% from last year and could cool further after Medicaid cuts.

Ryan McCaffrey left work to care for his son

Ryan McCaffrey, 41, lost his sales-and-operations job after CEO changes, a company sale and a reorganization. He initially planned to find work quickly, but his two-year-old son, Leo, was diagnosed with Angelman syndrome, a rare neurological disorder. Ryan and his wife decided one parent should stay home; she earns the household income while he provides care. He hopes to reenter the workforce next year or the year after and worries about missing developments in AI. Although people tell him it must be nice not to work, he says he misses the daily grind.

Tariffs and uncertainty cram holiday inventory into warehouses

Retailers delayed holiday orders because tariffs made early inventory more expensive and geopolitical tensions made consumer demand harder to predict. Once consumers appeared likely to spend, businesses ordered at the last minute and all at once. Adobe projects $275.1 billion in holiday spending, up 6.7% year over year. The Logistics Managers’ Index found inventory growth and warehouse-storage-price growth at their fastest rates since 2022. Supply-chain experts warned that crowded, costly warehouses leave retailers exposed if excess goods cannot be sold during the holidays.

Pet-food companies test taste—and even excrement—in France

New York Times reporter Jenny Gross visited Royal Canin’s pet center in southern France, where 377 dogs and cats participate in daily 4 p.m. food tests. Dogs finish comparisons within about 15 minutes, while cats may take hours; researchers weigh what animals eat and rate stool quality from one to ten, with diarrhea at the bottom. The testing supports a lucrative market: U.S. cat-food spending reached $17 billion, up 14% from two years earlier, while companies sell premium food and supplements for aging pets, including pandemic-era cats now reaching middle age.

Baseball owners want a salary cap; players defend free agency

MLB owners are expected to lock out players when the collective bargaining agreement expires December 1, with a salary cap at the center of the dispute. The league proposes a payroll floor and cap, saying the changes would raise pay for middle-class players while limiting wealthy teams’ advantage; superstars would earn less. The union says gains for one player would come at another’s expense. Former pitcher Mike Trombley recalled earning about $240,000 in today’s dollars early in his career, then signing a roughly $15 million modern-value Orioles deal after free agency. David Ortiz’s unexpected rise illustrates why players resist surrendering that upside.

Gas costs have passed $150 billion above the March baseline

Marketplace’s closing figure, from GasBuddy, was that the extra amount Americans have paid for gasoline and diesel since March 1 crossed $150 billion. The program presented the number as a major explanation for consumer and voter dissatisfaction, without offering a separate forecast or policy response.

Show notes

The September Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey from the BLS is out, and things in this labor market are mostly unchanged, although quits were up a bit. Still, economists are clear: Now is not the time to leave your job without another one lined up. Also in this episode: That stiff labor market may be hampering productivity, warehousing costs are up as retailers scramble for the holidays, and pro baseball faces a lockout in 2027.

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