Inflation just won't quit

The October consumer price index rose 0.4% from September, while core inflation rose 0.3%, both hotter than economists expected. Because the Bureau of Labor Statistics did not publish an October 2025 CPI during the government shutdown, economists estimate current year-over-year inflation at about 4%. Analysts Andrew Davis, Thomas Ryan and Brian Bethune said the increase was broader than gasoline: higher diesel costs are feeding into agriculture, transportation and food, while vehicle insurance, hospital services, Disney+ and Hulu also became more expensive. A tight labor market and strong demand are giving businesses room to pass higher costs to consumers. Housing costs are rising as high mortgage rates and scarce homes push more people into rentals; with wages gaining just over 3%, many consumers are falling behind.

West Texas Intermediate fell to about $86 a barrel from above $100, and national gasoline prices dropped below $4, but the energy markets are not moving together. Gregory Brew of Eurasia Group said oil is well supplied, access through the Strait of Hormuz has improved, and Democrats winning Congress reduced the market’s perceived risk that President Trump could escalate the Iran conflict. Diesel prices are easing despite Russian refinery shutdowns because November demand sits between the agricultural and winter peaks, although Tom Kloza said the decline may not last. Refining damage from attacks in Russia and the Middle East may not be meaningfully repaired until next year, with pre-war production levels potentially not returning until 2028. Gasoline is also benefiting from lower seasonal demand and easier production of winter-grade fuel.

The Verge’s Mia Sato said AI agents can research products, compare reviews and ingredients, add items to carts, and sometimes complete purchases, but actual agent-driven transactions remain small: some companies report only a few hundred or even single-digit transactions. She described agent shopping as looking through a “pinhole,” because users must give precise instructions and repeatedly correct the results. Sato demonstrated a loophole at The RealReal, where Meta’s Muse repeatedly placed 10 or 20 items on 20-minute holds, preventing other shoppers from buying them for hours; The RealReal closed the loophole after her story. Retailers want AI features but worry agents will ignore sponsored listings, checkout offers and suggested products. Sato uses AI to screen skincare ingredients but would not let an agent buy without her approval.

The Dow fell 157 points, or 0.3%, to 52,231; the Nasdaq dropped 187 points, or 0.75%, to 25,065; and the S&P 500 declined 29 points, or 0.4%, to 7,520. AI company Anthropic, maker of Claude, is planning an IPO with shares priced between $70 and $78 and a potential valuation of up to $1.4 trillion. Google, which has invested in Anthropic and makes Gemini, fell more than 0.25%, while Amazon, another Anthropic investor, gained about 1.5%. Bond prices fell and the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.99%.

Jean Chatzky told the host that her mother spent Social Security and pension income but avoided drawing down her retirement account; after 20 years, the account held more than when she retired. Chatzky said this is common: among retirees with roughly $500,000 in assets excluding home equity, one Employee Benefit Research Institute study found they had spent only 12% after 20 years. The problem is partly logistical—retirees must coordinate taxable, tax-deferred and Roth accounts—but also emotional: a falling balance feels like “losing the money” rather than using it. She contrasted today’s 401(k)-based system with earlier generations’ pensions and said Social Security replaces about 40% of average pre-retirement income, less for higher earners. Her advice is to create a “forever paycheck,” converting part of a nest egg into dependable lifetime income while retaining money for other purposes.

Steve Miller said he retired from the energy industry at 60 and, with his wife Lou Jean, opened Liberty Apple Orchard in Edwardsville, Illinois, the day after he retired in 2013. Their four daughters and the family’s habit of picking apples wherever they lived inspired them to create a pick-your-own orchard. They first had to find affordable land, then wait four to five years for the trees to mature. Miller said orchard management involves trial and error: they planted too many Enterprise apples, which ripened late when too few customers remained to pick them. The business uses familiar income statements, balance sheets and cash-flow statements, but “with a lot less zeros.” In its 14th season, the orchard had been profitable for several years and could support the family.

The New York Fed reported that U.S. credit-card balances reached nearly $1.3 trillion in the third quarter, up more than 4% from a year earlier. Total household debt—including mortgages, auto loans and student loans—also hit a record above $19 trillion, while delinquency rates increased. The report quoted Fed researchers saying the figures reflect financial hardship among households.