The Internet Isn’t Buying Trump’s Economic Claims

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won re-election against Flávio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro and Lula’s bitter rival. Wall Street Journal correspondent Samantha Pearson said the result was immediately clouded by confusion over voting hours. As polls were closing at 5 p.m., a Supreme Court justice ordered voting to continue for two more hours after complaints about heavy rain and inadequate public transportation. Some polling stations had already closed, however, so some voters could continue voting while others could not. The decision temporarily halted the vote count and created the basis for Bolsonaro to refuse to recognize the result and seek to have the election annulled. Pearson said Lula faces an unusually difficult fourth term at age 80. Nearly 60 million Brazilians voted against him, while the Bolsonaro movement strengthened its position in both houses of Congress despite losing the presidency. Lula will therefore have to negotiate with conservative lawmakers who oppose much of his agenda, especially on government spending and economic policy. Pearson also said Lula remains a pragmatic politician with decades of experience finding common ground when it serves Brazil’s interests, but the election could still lead to a prolonged legal fight and continued political polarization.

Pearson said Lula is now the last major stalwart of South America’s left after left-wing governments suffered defeats in countries including Chile, Colombia and Peru. She expects tensions with the Trump administration to remain high, particularly as Lula strengthens Brazil’s relationships with China and other BRICS countries while Washington tries to expand its influence in the region. Climate policy and foreign policy are likely to be major points of disagreement. At the same time, Pearson emphasized that Lula is a pragmatist and that Brazil and the United States still have important economic interests in common, including trade and critical minerals. Both governments therefore have incentives to keep commerce flowing and preserve at least a working relationship. Financial markets initially preferred a Bolsonaro victory because investors viewed his promises of fiscal consolidation, privatization and closer alignment with Washington as more market-friendly. Brazilian stocks and the country’s currency fell after Lula’s win, reflecting those investor concerns.

Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado returned home after 11 months in exile, drawing cheers from large crowds as she entered Caracas. The Nobel Peace Prize laureate’s return could increase pressure on interim President Delcy Rodríguez, whom President Trump has increasingly treated as a partner in negotiating lucrative oil deals. Florida Republicans had supported Machado’s return because they feared Trump’s support for Rodríguez was alienating Venezuelan and Cuban voters ahead of the U.S. midterms. U.S. officials had also supported transition talks involving another opposition leader; the third round of those negotiations concluded the previous week without setting a timetable for a presidential election. The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment. In an August interview with the Journal, Machado said she could not lead Venezuela’s democratic transition or pressure its current leaders while remaining abroad, making her return a potentially important change in the opposition’s position.

Hundreds of thousands of people protested in France over the weekend against the cost of living and deteriorating public services. Most demonstrations were peaceful, although clashes with police occurred in several regions. An Ipsos poll found that the French public remained broadly unimpressed with the government’s handling of the unrest. Right-wing presidential candidate Marine Le Pen entered the political moment by launching her campaign and calling for a “movement for France’s renaissance.” Her message combined promises of beauty, humanism and progress with familiar themes involving immigration and crime. Ipsos respondents gave Le Pen the highest marks for her handling of the unrest, but the poll suggested she had made little progress in attracting new voters ahead of April’s election. The episode also previewed a busy market week: the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank were widely expected to leave rates unchanged after previous increases, while strong U.S. data and persistent inflation led investors to anticipate further Fed increases, possibly beginning in December. AI-related concerns were also expected to feature during earnings reports from Alphabet, Amazon and Microsoft.

With just over a week before the midterms, former President Barack Obama campaigned in Ohio and blamed the Trump administration for rising costs. Obama said Trump had made “a series of bad decisions,” including starting “an unnecessary war that nobody asked for and nobody voted for.” Trump, meanwhile, held at least seven rallies in mostly Republican states and warned that a Democratic midterm victory would be “very bad, very dark, very horrible for our country.” Across 11 hours onstage, Trump argued that the economy was booming under his leadership. Reporter Jack Gillum described a Journal analysis of tens of millions of TikTok videos, hundreds of thousands of podcast episodes, cable-news segments and political advertisements in competitive congressional races. The analysis divided economic messaging into roughly nine subjects, including Trump’s proposed $5,000 dividend, the broader economy, gas prices and jobs. Except on jobs, people discussing or reposting the claims overwhelmingly rejected the idea that the economy was doing well. Gas prices were the most frequently discussed issue, and online sentiment about affordability and the country’s direction was overwhelmingly negative. Gillum called the analysis a proxy for voter sentiment rather than a replacement for polling, but said positivity became harder to find over time.

Gillum said the Journal found that Republicans in the closest House and Senate races were generally avoiding selling Trump’s economic record. Among thousands of political ads reviewed, only one Republican ad mentioned Trump in connection with the economy, and it was an attack ad from a New Hampshire Republican seeking broad support. The candidate said, “When the president’s policies are bad for New Hampshire, I’ll oppose them,” citing opposition to the trade war with Canada. Democrats, by contrast, were repeatedly highlighting high fuel costs. Diesel was above $6 a gallon and regular gasoline above $4.27 a gallon nationally outside California, making fuel one of the largest pocketbook liabilities for Republicans. Gillum said the ads, online discussions and large sums spent on political messaging all pointed toward voters feeling that the country was becoming less affordable. One TikTok user summarized the frustration by saying, “You can only blame the Democrats at Joe Biden for so long.” The analysis therefore suggested that Trump’s rallies were not translating into a persuasive economic message, potentially threatening Republican control of the House and possibly the Senate.

San Francisco voters were set to decide Proposition G, which would restore weekday vehicle traffic to the Upper Great Highway along the Pacific coast. The road was temporarily converted into a car-free zone six years earlier, and the change was made permanent in 2024. Supporters of restoring traffic said the park’s creation received too little outreach to residents who depended on the highway and complained that alternate routes made simple trips much longer. Their proposed compromise would allow cars Monday through Friday while keeping the road as a park on weekends. Opponents said Proposition G would destroy a popular recreation area and amount to moving backward. The debate reflects a broader push toward pedestrianization in cities such as San Francisco, New York and Seattle, following European examples. In London, Oxford Street was also being converted away from cars, buses, taxis and bicycles. People interviewed there saw both sides: pedestrians would have an easier and safer route, but diverting buses could increase congestion on smaller streets and disrupt the area more than it helped. Back in San Francisco, park advocates cited a reduction in traffic accidents, while opponents argued that estimates of 1.7 million annual visitors were wildly inflated. Reporter Jim Carlton described the Proposition G fight as bitter and divisive, with the vote determining the future of the iconic highway.