Jumping Revenue, Big Losses and Many Risks: Inside Anthropic’s IPO Filing

Anthropic has filed its S-1 registration statement, beginning the process for what could become the largest initial public offering ever. The 400-page filing reports approximately $16 billion in revenue for the six months ending June 30, a 1,300% increase from the same period a year earlier. It also reports losses of more than $80 billion, largely attributed to an accounting adjustment connected to financing agreements. Anthropic’s roadshow is expected to begin in about two weeks, and the company hopes to sell roughly $100 billion in shares. There is no official valuation yet, but The Wall Street Journal reports that the company could be valued at as much as $2 trillion. Corrie Driebusch, who covers IPOs for the Journal, says the filing’s risk-factor section was one of its most revealing parts and occupied roughly a quarter of the document. Anthropic warns about AI models developing self-preserving behavior, resisting shutdown, or generating responses resembling blackmail to persuade people to let them continue operating. It also warns that its technology could contribute to new biological weapons or destabilize the geopolitical order. Anthropic says it may be unable to obtain conventional insurance for catastrophic AI-related incidents because the potential damages could be too large for insurers to cover. Driebusch says this is less a broad IPO boom than a year of “mega IPOs.” While many companies have delayed or withdrawn offerings because of market unease, investors he has spoken with still view Anthropic as a must-own stock. They may challenge the price, but he expects them to buy.

Meta announced plans to raise as much as $95 billion through waves of stock offerings to fund its artificial-intelligence infrastructure. The plan includes approximately $35 billion in public offerings and a new class of non-voting stock. Megan Barowski, who covers Meta for the Journal, says the move is unprecedented for the company and demonstrates how expensive Mark Zuckerberg’s AI strategy has become: even one of the world’s largest public companies does not have enough cash to fund all of its AI bets internally. The announcement came on the same day as Anthropic’s IPO filing, at a time when more AI companies are seeking money from investors. Barowski says Meta investors have not always supported Zuckerberg’s spending spree, although he argues that the spending is necessary for Meta to become an AI company. Some of the financing may come from other technology companies. Companies that have expressed interest in buying part of the Meta equity include Arm, Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom, according to the discussion. Barowski describes these transactions as part of a potentially worrying circular pattern in which AI companies invest in one another. If one company fails, underperforms, or suffers another serious setback, the effects could spread through the rest of the AI ecosystem. Meta’s stock fell almost 2% after the announcement, even as enthusiasm around Anthropic’s filing helped lift technology stocks more broadly.

Anthropic’s IPO filing helped push technology shares higher. The Nasdaq led the three major U.S. indexes, closing up 0.8%. The episode presents the market reaction as evidence that investors remain eager for major AI opportunities, even while they are becoming more cautious about the amount of money being committed to the sector and the risks created by interlocking investments. JetBlue moved in the opposite direction. Its stock fell as investors questioned the airline’s viability while fuel prices remain high. The Journal reported that some of JetBlue’s senior creditors had hired a financial adviser and a law firm. Creditors commonly take those steps when they believe there is a risk they will not be repaid fully or on schedule. The broader airline industry is struggling with fuel costs, but the report says JetBlue is particularly exposed because it is one of the smaller carriers. The creditor activity does not itself establish that JetBlue is headed for a restructuring, but it signals heightened concern about the company’s ability to manage its obligations. The episode places JetBlue’s decline alongside the AI-driven market gains as two contrasting examples of how investors were evaluating growth prospects and financial risk that day.

Brazilian stocks and the currency fell sharply after President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva unexpectedly won re-election. Global investors had recently moved money into Brazilian markets because they expected Flavio Bolsonaro to win and believed his administration would reduce government spending and pursue deregulation. Lula’s victory overturned those expectations. Market watchers do not expect major structural overhauls during another Lula term, but investors are preparing for continued volatility. The uncertainty is compounded by Bolsonaro’s refusal to concede. The Bovespa index dropped more than 13%, its worst day since March 2020, while Brazil’s currency also sank. The market reaction reflected a gap between the political outcome investors had priced in and the policy direction they now expect. The episode does not say that Lula immediately announced a new economic program; instead, it emphasizes that investors had positioned themselves for a Bolsonaro victory and were caught off guard. Their concerns center on government spending, regulation, and the likelihood that Lula’s return will make the hoped-for structural changes less likely.

Israelis will vote tomorrow in the country’s first election since the October 7, 2023 attacks. More than 60,000 Israelis living abroad are returning to cast ballots, including people from the United States and elsewhere who oppose the government led by Benjamin Netanyahu. Several voters interviewed by the Journal said they were motivated by concerns about corruption, the growing influence of the ultra-Orthodox, and what they see as the government’s failure to take responsibility for the security breakdown on October 7. One voter said he almost did not care which government replaced Netanyahu, only that the current government leave office. Journal reporter Anat Peled says many Israelis see the election as a battle over the country’s identity: whether Israel remains a Western liberal democracy or moves toward a more religious-nationalist and less liberal direction. Although international observers focus on Palestinian statehood and the future of Gaza and Lebanon, Peled says Israeli voters are concentrating more on domestic issues and competing explanations of who is responsible for the October 7 failure. The central political division, she says, is no longer simply left versus right but “Netanyahu and anti-Netanyahu.” The opposition is fragmented. The party leading in polls is Yashar, led by Gadi Eisenkot, a former military chief of staff and a relative political newcomer who presents himself as trustworthy. Because Israel uses a parliamentary system, the party with the most votes still must assemble a coalition controlling at least 61 of 120 Knesset seats. Initial results should provide a general picture by Wednesday morning Israel time, but coalition negotiations could take weeks. Netanyahu’s threshold is lower than an outright victory: if neither side can form a governing majority, he could remain caretaker prime minister until another election, potentially gaining several more months in office.