WSJ What’s News
Is Cuba Next? Inside Washington’s Push for Regime Change
· Summarized
Key takeaways
- Cuba is currently in its worst economic crisis in over a century, with severe shortages affecting daily life.
- The U.S. government views the economic fragility of Cuba as a possible leverage point for regime change.
- Unlike Venezuela, Cuba lacks a substantial organized opposition to its government, complicating potential political changes.
- The potential for a humanitarian disaster raises concerns about U.S. intervention strategies in Cuba.
Summary
Cuba's Economic Crisis
Cuba is facing its worst economic crisis since 1902, characterized by severe blackouts, shortages of medicine, food, and essential goods, and economic dependency on remittances from abroad. With oil deficits and difficulties in obtaining fuel, the island's situation is dire and continues to worsen, threatening civil unrest.
U.S. Political Calculus and Pressure on Cuba
The U.S. government is assessing the collapse of Cuba's economy as an opportunity to pressure its government. The intelligence community is briefing officials on the fragility of the regime, considering strategies similar to those used in Venezuela to prompt regime change, despite the lack of a clear plan or allies within Cuba.
Historical Context and Challenges of Regime Change
Unlike Venezuela, Cuba's government has deep-rooted control, with no organized opposition due to its totalitarian regime. Historical protests have been swiftly quelled by the government, demonstrating its repressive capacity. Any efforts for regime change would need to navigate the complexities of Cuba's political structure and social fatigue.
Future Outlook and International Dynamics
As the U.S. considers further pressure on Cuba, concerns about potential humanitarian crises and the effectiveness of such tactics emerge. The geopolitical landscape is complicated by Cuba's relationships with countries like Russia and China, which are unlikely to provide substantial aid. The outlook remains bleak, with the Cuban populace weary and uncertain about their future.
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Show notes
Cuba is at a breaking point. From severe fuel shortages to a public health crisis, the island’s economic distress has reached a fever pitch. Now, the Trump administration believes it has the leverage to do what others couldn't: force regime change. This week, Luke Vargas explores the mechanics of this renewed pressure campaign and America’s power projection abroad with WSJ’s José de Córdoba in Mexico and Vera Bergengruen in Washington.
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